Working Papers
2003
November 1, 2003
Do IMF-Supported Programs Boost Private Capital Inflows? the Role of Program Size and Policy Adjustment
Description: I analyze empirically whether program size (the size of financial assistance) and policy adjustment matter for the success of IMF-supported programs. I define a program as successful if the initial program projections for net private capital flows are met or exceeded. I find that success is negatively associated with the size of financial assistance, especially in countries with market access, and that projection biases binding constraints on the amount of IMF lending may account for this association. Moreover, policy adjustment seems to have a causal positive effect on the likelihood of program success.
November 1, 2003
Output Response to Currency Crises
Description: This paper analyzes the behavior of output during currency crises using a sample of 195 crisis episodes in 91 developing countries during 1970-98. It finds that more than two-fifths of the crises in the sample were expansionary, and that output contraction was greater in large and more developed economies than in small and less developed economies. Currency crises have not been any more contractionary in the 1990s than in the previous two decades. Countries that traded less with the rest of the world, that had a relatively open capital account, and where crises were preceded by large capital inflows were more likely to be associated with contraction during crises. The contraction was more pronounced if trade competitors devalued, oil prices rose during the crisis, and postcrisis period was marked by tight monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy.
November 1, 2003
Free Trade Areas and Rules of Origin: Economics and Politics
Description: Incorporating intermediate inputs into a small-union general-equilibrium model, this paper first develops the welfare economics of preferential trading under the rules of origin (ROO) and then demonstrates that the ROO could improve the political viability of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Two interesting outcomes are derived. First, a welfare reducing FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO becomes feasible in the presence of these rules. Second, a welfare improving FTA that was rejected in the absence of the ROO is endorsed in their presence, but upon endorsement it becomes welfare inferior relative to the status quo.
November 1, 2003
Why Does Fdi Go Where it Goes? New Evidence From the Transition Economies
Description: This paper examines the importance of agglomeration economies and institutions vis-a-vis initial conditions and factor endowments in explaining the locational choice of foreign investors. Using a unique panel data set for 25 transition economies between 1990 and 1998, we find that the main determinants are institutions, agglomeration, and trade openness. We find important differences between the Eastern European and Baltic countries, on the one hand, and the CIS countries on the other: in the latter group, natural resources and infrastructure matter, while agglomeration matters only for the former group.
November 1, 2003
How Useful Are Benefit Incidence Analyses of Public Education and Health Spending
Description: This paper provides a primer on benefit incidence analysis (BIA) for macroeconomists and a new data set on the benefit incidence of education and health spending covering 56 countries over 1960-2000, representing a significant improvement in quality and coverage over existing compilations. The paper demonstrates the usefulness of BIA in two dimensions. First, the paper finds, among other things, that overall education and health spending are poorly targeted; benefits from primary education and primary health care go disproportionately to the middle class, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, HIPCs and transition economies; but targeting has improved in the 1990s. Second, simple measures of association show that countries with a more propoor incidence of education and health spending tend to have better education and health outcomes, good governance, high per capita income, and wider accessibility to information. The paper explores policy implications of these findings.
November 1, 2003
Dynamic Depositor Discipline in U.S. Banks
Description: This paper investigates the presence of depositor discipline in the U.S. banking sector. We test whether depositors penalize (discipline) banks for poor performance by withdrawing their uninsured deposits. While focusing on the movements in uninsured deposits, we also account for the possibility that banks may be forced to pay a risk premium in the form of higher interest rates to induce depositors not to withdraw their uninsured deposits. Our results support the existence of depositor discipline: a weak bank may not necessarily be able to stop a deposit drain by raising its uninsured deposit interest rates.
November 1, 2003
Company Pension Plans, Stock Market Returns, and Labor Demand
Description: With asset values falling sharply in recent years, many companies around the world are under pressure to restore the solvency of their defined-benefit pension plans. Will this lead to higher contributions? Will higher contributions increase labor costs and reduce employment? Does this mechanism exacerbate economic downturns? What are the economic effects of pension fund regulation? This paper develops a theoretical model to address these questions. Although its scope is more general, the model captures the main institutional features of the pension system in the Netherlands, a country where the economic effects of the pension shock are widely debated.
November 1, 2003
Fiscal Rules and Countercyclical Policy: Frank Ramsey Meets Gramm-Rudman-Hollings
Description: Fiscal rules—legal restrictions on government borrowing, spending, or debt accumulation (like the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings Act in the United States)—have recently been adopted or considered in several countries, both industrial and developing. Previous literature stresses that such laws restrict countercyclical government borrowing, thus preventing intertemporal equalization of marginal deadweight losses of taxation—an idea associated with Frank Ramsey. However, such literature typically abstracts from persistent current deficits that are financed by future tax increases. Eliminating such deficits may substantially reduce tax rate variability—the very goal of countercyclical borrowing—even over a finite horizon. Thus, Gramm-Rudman-Hollings and Frank Ramsey are not necessarily enemies and they may even be good friends!
November 1, 2003
Dynamics of Corporate Performance in Thailand
Description: Recent crises in emerging markets have highlighted the role of the corporate sector in transmitting financial shocks to the macroeconomy. This paper takes stock of the performance of the Thai corporate sector in emerging from the Asian crisis, and discusses remaining challenges and vulnerabilities. Econometric evidence is presented on the impact of excess leverage on performance. Debt levels, though high, have fallen from post-crisis peaks, while returns and corporate cash flows have stabilized. However, the aggregate picture masks significant firm-level variation, which is analyzed by examining estimated distributions for various indicators across firms.
November 1, 2003
Modeling Inflation in Georgia
Description: The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.