Working Papers

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2003

December 1, 2003

Multinational Enterprises, International Trade, and Productivity Growth: Firm-Level Evidence From the United States

Description: We estimate international technology spillovers to U.S. manufacturing firms via imports and foreign direct investment (FDI) between 1987 and 1996. In contrast to earlier work, our results suggest that FDI leads to substantial productivity gains for domestic firms. The size of FDI spillovers is economically important, accounting for about 11 percent of productivity growth in U.S. firms between 1987 and 1996. In addition, there is some evidence for import-related spillovers, but it is weaker than for FDI spillovers. The paper also gives a detailed account of why our study leads to results different from those found in previous work. This analysis indicates that our results are also likely to apply to other countries and periods.

December 1, 2003

Budget System Reform in Transitional Economies: The Case of the Former Yugoslav Republics

Description: For the republics of the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (SFRY) as for many other transition economies, an important step in introducing a more market-oriented system was the restructuring of their budget systems. This paper reviews and evaluates the process of budget system reform during the transition period extending from the time they emerged from the collapse of the SFRY in 1989 until the end of 2002. For at least a decade of this period, the Fiscal Affairs Department of the IMF has been providing technical assistance (TA) to these countries to facilitate such reforms. Based on the material generated by this effort, the authors offer a review of the progress made and an assessment of the reform elements still to be completed. Given that the former Yugoslav republics all commenced the reform process with the same institutions, this paper offers a unique opportunity to analyze the critical elements in successful budget system reform. An attempt is made to explain the varying degrees of success experienced by different countries, and a reform agenda is suggested to guide future TA.

December 1, 2003

The Effects of Fiscal Policieson the Economic Development of Women in the Middle East and North Africa

Description: Statistics indicate that the economic and social development of women in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) compares unfavorably with most regions in the world. This paper assesses the influence of government expenditure and taxation policies on the economic and social welfare of women in the region. On the expenditure side, we test the explanatory power of public social spending in the determination of key female social indicators. We find that the relatively weak social outcomes for MENA women are not explained by the amount of government social spending, suggesting the answer lies in the efficiency and reach of present spending. With respect to taxation, the main issues in the literature on gender bias in taxation are highlighted and applied in a general manner to the MENA context. Some simple policy recommendations are suggested.

December 1, 2003

Trade Liberalization Strategies: What Could South Eastern Europe Learn From Cefta and Bfta?

Description: This paper explores the effectiveness of the Central European Free Trade Area (CEFTA) and the Baltic Free Trade Area (BFTA). Estimates from a gravity model and bilateral trade data support the view that both CEFTA and BFTA helped expand regional trade and limit the emergence of a "hub-and-spoke" relationship between the CEECs and the European Union (EU). These empirical conclusions carry some important policy implications for the "second wave" of prospective EU members among Southeastern European Countries (SEECs). The paper argues that the SEECs should reconsider their bilateral approach to trade liberalization and move towards a multilateral free-trade area as exemplified by both the CEFTA and BFTA.

December 1, 2003

Growth, Governance, and Fiscal Policy Transmission Channels in Low-Income Countries

Description: Private investment is the principal transmission channel through which fiscal policy affects growth in high-income countries. In low-income countries, governance and also other considerations suggest that the primary channel is factor productivity. Empirical results reported in this paper confirm this expectation: in low-income countries, factor productivity is some four times more effective than investment as a channel for increasing growth through fiscal policy. Although the private investment response to fiscal contraction may be minor, high-deficit, low-income countries can nonetheless benefit from a reduction in unsustainable fiscal deficits because of governance-related factor productivity responses that increase growth.

December 1, 2003

From the Front Lines At Seoul Bank: Restructuring and Reprivatization

Description: Soon after Korea agreed to an IMF-supported program, Seoul Bank and Korea First Bank were nationalized through an injection of public funds by the government. The two banks were singled out early in the IMF-supported program to be sold to foreign investors. Korea First Bank was sold to foreign investors at the end of 1999. Seoul Bank, however, remained a government-owned bank, managed by a team of professionals recruited from outside of the traditional banking sector. This paper describes the restructuring of Seoul Bank by the new management team between June 2000 and October 2002, when the bank was sold to Hana Bank in a merger transaction.

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