Working Papers
2004
April 1, 2004
Are Uniform Tariffs Optimal?
Description: This paper analyzes whether uniform tariffs give rise to the highest welfare compared with tariffs that either escalate or de-escalate along the value chain of production. We show that countries may be better off with de-escalating tariffs where tariff rates are higher on intermediate inputs and lower on final goods. The key point is that higher tariffs can encourage agglomeration of intermediate input suppliers and final goods producers in one country. With high tariffs on intermediate inputs, the benefits of close proximity to final goods producers may outweigh the benefits of locating according to comparative advantage, which is more likely when the share of intermediate inputs in producing final goods is high. De-escalating tariffs yield the highest welfare when the benefits of agglomeration are very high. These benefits of agglomeration accrue to both countries in the form of lower prices.
April 1, 2004
Estimation of Economic Growth in France Using Business Survey Data
Description: This paper proposes a new way of computing a coincident indicator for economic activity in France using data from business surveys. We use the generalized dynamic factor model à la Forni and others (2000) to extract common components from a large number of survey observations. The results obtained show that the resulting indicator forecasts economic activity with a relatively high degree of accuracy before the release of actual data.
April 1, 2004
A Bayesian Approach to Model Uncertainty
Description: This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it simultaneously addresses the biases associated with endogenous and omitted variables by incorporating a panel data systems Generalized Method of Moments estimator. Practical applications of the developed methodology are discussed, including testing for the robustness of explanatory variables in the analyses of the determinants of economic growth and poverty.
April 1, 2004
New Estimates of Government Net Capital Stocks for 22 OECD Countries 1960-2001
Description: The issue of whether government capital is productive has received a great deal of recent attention. Yet empirical analyses of public capital productivity have generally been limited to the official capital stock estimates available in a small sample of countries. Alternatively, many researchers have investigated the output effects of public investment-recognizing that investment may be a poor proxy for the corresponding capital stock. This paper attempts to overcome the data shortage by providing internationally comparable capital stock estimates for 22 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries.
April 1, 2004
The Effects of Exchange Rate Change on the Trade Balance in Croatia
Description: A reduced-form model approach was used to estimate the trade balance response to permanent domestic currency depreciation. For this purpose, long-run and short-run effects were estimated, using three modeling methods along with two real effective exchange rate measures. On average, a 1 percent permanent depreciation improves the equilibrium trade balance by between 0.94 percent and 1.3 percent. The new equilibrium is established after approximately 2.5 years. Evidence of the J-curve is also found. Overall, in the light of the results obtained, it is questionable whether permanent depreciation is desirable to improve the trade balance, taking into account potential adverse effects on the rest of the economy.
April 1, 2004
Overview of the Indian Corporate Sector: 1989-2002
Description: This paper uses firm-level data to examine the performance of India's nonfinancial corporate sector since 1989 and evaluate its financial vulnerabilities. While promising trends in liquidity, profitability, and leverage of the sector emerged in the early 1990s, they experienced a reversal after 1996. Nonetheless, most indicators were still at comfortable levels, and there is evidence of improvement in 2002, the last year in our sample. However, a number of firms still face problems servicing their debt obligations, posing a risk to lenders. In particular, the aggregate interest coverage of the corporate sector indicates that potential nonperforming loans of the corporate sector remain high. This underscores the need for close monitoring of the corporate sector in the future.
April 1, 2004
Balance Sheets, Exchange Rate Policy, and Welfare
Description: The debate about the appropriate choice of exchange rate regime is fundamental in international economics. This paper develops a small open-economy model with balance sheet effects and compares the performance of fixed and flexible exchange rate regimes. The model is solved up to a second-order approximation which allows us to address the issue of risk and welfare rigorously. The paper identifies threshold levels of the debt-to-GDP ratio above which fixed exchange rate regimes are welfare superior to monetary policy rules that imply flexible exchange rate regimes. The results suggest that emerging market economies that suffer from a relatively high level of indebtedness and are constrained in their pursuit of optimal monetary policy, could find it beneficial to opt for a fixed exchange rate regime.
April 1, 2004
Fiscal Indulgence in Central Europe: Loss of the External Anchor
Description: In recent years, fiscal performance in Central Europe has steadily deteriorated, in contrast to the improvement in the Baltics. This paper explores the determinants of such differences among countries slated for EU accession. Regression estimates suggest that economic and institutional fundamentals do not provide a full explanation. An alternative explanation lies in the political economy of the accession process, and a game-theoretic model illustrates why a country with a stronger bargaining position might have an incentive to deviate from convergence to the Maastricht criteria. The model generates alternative fiscal policy regimes-allowing for regime shifts-depending on country characteristics and EU policies.
April 1, 2004
Derivative Market Competition: OTC Versus Organized Derivative Exchanges
Description: Recent regulatory initiatives in the United States have again raised the issue of a 'level regulatory and supervisory playing field' and the degree of competition globally between over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives and organized derivative exchange (ODE) markets. This paper models some important aspects of how an ODE market interrelates with the OTC markets. It analyzes various ways in which an ODE market can respond to competition from the OTC markets and considers whether ODE markets would actually benefit from a more level playing field. Among other factors, such as different transaction costs, different abilities to mitigate credit risk play a significant role in determining the degree of competition between the two types of markets. This implies that a potentially important service ODE markets can provide OTC market participants is to extend clearing services to them. Such services would allow the OTC markets to focus more on providing less competitive contracts/innovations and instead customize its contracts to specific investors' risk preferences and needs.
April 1, 2004
Measuring a Roller Coaster: Evidenceon the Finnish Output Gap
Description: The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.