Working Papers
2004
June 1, 2004
Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?
Description: Is backward-looking behavior in pricing or imperfect credibility of stabilization efforts responsible for the failure of inflation rates to decline to targeted levels during many disinflation programs? This paper assesses the relative importance of these two factors during a number of disinflation attempts in developing and transition economies. Using survey data, we find that expectations of future inflation play a much more important role than past inflation in shaping the inflation process. We also find that an improvement in primary fiscal balances significantly reduces inflation expectations. This suggests that during stabilization episodes, priority should be given to building fiscal credibility by strengthening public finances.
June 1, 2004
Multinational Affiliates and Local Financial Markets
Description: We use data on the sources of debt finance of U.S. majority-owned foreign affiliates in 53 countries over the period 1983 to 2001 to examine the role of financial market development, and exposure to host country-specific risk on the financing choices of these affiliates. We find that total balance sheets are about four times as large as the cross-border component of foreign direct investment (FDI). The extent of financial leverage through local debt is positively related to host-country corporate tax rates, exchange rate variability, local currency-denominated sales, and financial development. Factors that further the role of local debt reduce that of parent company debt, and through this substitution overall leverage increases.
June 1, 2004
Toward More Effective Redistribution: Reform Options for Intergovernmental Transfers in China
Description: Full implementation of an intergovernmental transfer system based on revenue capacities and expenditure needs could significantly improve both redistribution and equity objectives of the Chinese authorities. This was envisaged in the 1994 fiscal reforms, but the authorities were unable to implement the measures fully. This paper examines mechanisms that might facilitate effective implementation.
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