Working Papers
2004
June 1, 2004
Financial Integration: A New Methodology and An Illustration
Description: This paper develops a simple methodology to test for asset integration, and applies it within and between American stock markets. Our technique relies on estimating and comparing expected risk-free rates across assets. Expected risk-free rates are allowed to vary freely over time, constrained only by the fact that they must be equal across (risk-adjusted) assets in well integrated markets. Assets are allowed to have standard risk characteristics, and are constrained by a factor model of covariances over short time periods. We find that implied expected risk-free rates vary dramatically over time, unlike short interest rates. Further, internal integration in the S&P 500 market is never rejected and is generally not rejected in the NASDAQ. Integration between the NASDAQ and the S&P, however, is always rejected dramatically.
June 1, 2004
Performance of Western Hemisphere Trading Blocs: A Cost-Corrected Gravity Approach
Description: We study the performance of the four Western Hemisphere trading blocs during the period 1978-2001. For the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), trade integration outweighed trade diversion; for MERCOSUR, increased integration and trade diversion went hand in hand; for the Central American Common Market (CACM) and the Andean Community, the evidence points to trade diversion only. We also find that trade among neighboring countries has increased since the early 1990s. The estimations are based on a nonlinear gravity equation that incorporates the hypothesis that exports create externalities that affect trade costs. This hypothesis might help reconcile the theoretical unitary income elasticity with most empirical findings of a non-unitary income elasticity in studies using the gravity equation.
June 1, 2004
The End of Textiles Quotas: A Case Study of the Impacton Bangladesh
Description: This paper evaluates the effects on the Bangladeshi economy of phasing out textile and clothing (T&C) quotas currently maintained by industrial countries. The planned abolition of the quotas under the Agreement on Textiles and Clothing in 2005 will alter the competitiveness of various exporting countries. Bangladesh relies heavily on textile and clothing exports and is potentially very vulnerable to this change in competitiveness. Based on assessments of quota restrictiveness and export similarity, and an analysis of its supply constraints, the paper concludes that Bangladesh could face significant pressure on its balance of payments, output, and employment when the quotas are eliminated.
June 1, 2004
Financial Crisis, Economic Recovery and Banking Development in Russia, Ukraine, and Other FSU Countries
Description: This paper provides a unified analysis for the onset of the 1998 financial crisis and the strong economic recovery afterward in Russia and other former Soviet Union countries. Before the crisis a banking failure arose owing to the coexistence of a lemons credit market and high government borrowing. In a lemons credit market low credit risk firms switched from bank to nonbank finance, including trade credits and barter trade, generating an externality on banks' interest rates. The collapse of the treasury bills market in the financial crisis triggered a change in banks' lending behavior, providing initial conditions for banking development.
June 1, 2004
To Buy or Not to Buy? Uncertainty, Irreversibility and Heterogeneous Investment Dynamics in Italian Company Data
Description: This study tests for the presence of real options effects induced by uncertainty and (partial) irreversibility on fixed capital investment using Italian company data. The approach recognizes that firm-level investment spending may, itself, be aggregated over multiple investment decisions in separate types of capital goods and emphasizes effects of uncertainty on short-run investment dynamics. Using a survey-based measure of uncertainty related to the assessment of managers responsible for the firms' investment plans, the study finds evidence of heterogeneous and nonlinear dynamics pointing to a slower adjustment of investment in response to demand shocks at higher levels of uncertainty. The results also point to an additional source of nonlinearity originating from a convex response of investment to demand shocks.
June 1, 2004
Toward a Framework for Safeguarding Financial Stability
Description: This paper examines the emergence of financial stability as a key policy objective. It discusses the underlying trends in the financial system, as well as the role of finance in relation to money, the real economy, and public policy. Financial stability is defined in terms of its ability to help the economic system allocate resources, manage risks, and absorb shocks. Moreover, financial stability is considered a continuum, changeable over time and consistent with multiple combinations of its constituent elements. On the basis of these concepts, a framework is presented that comprises an encompassing analysis and assessment of financial stability, and maps out broad policy implications.
June 1, 2004
Conditional Lending Under Altruism
Description: We analyze how the altruism of an international financial institution (IFI) towards its lowincome member countries (LICs) alters the effectiveness of its loans. We study IFI loans to a credit-constrained LIC. The IFI's repayment policy is determined by the interplay of its concerns for the welfare of the loan recipient and its fiduciary responsibilities to creditor countries. If the IFI is unable to commit to repayment terms in advance, conditional loans are superior to unconditional loans. Thus, IFI altruism and the inability to commit are sufficient reasons to equip loans with conditions. Conditional loans produce an efficient allocation of resources, so altruism is not a fundamental reason that loans fail to increase welfare.
June 1, 2004
Achieving and Maintaining Price Stability in Nigeria
Description: This paper reviews the historical performance of monetary policy in Nigeria and discusses the relative merits of alternative monetary policy strategies that Nigeria could adopt in the future, once the many operational issues that today obstruct the conduct of monetary policy have been addressed. An analysis of external and fiscal dominance in Nigeria reveals that none of the candidate strategies is particularly appealing although, on various grounds, a long-run target for inflation combined with a free float seems to be the ultimate option. The paper shows how to design and operationalize such a regime in Nigeria when account is taken for the emerging market features of the economy.
June 1, 2004
Economic Performance Over the Conflict Cycle
Description: The paper finds a significant shift in the economic characteristics of civil conflicts during the1990s. Conflicts have become shorter but with more severe contractions and a stronger recovery of growth. The overall length and cost of the conflict cycle has probably declined. The stance of macroeconomic policy was an important factor while the underlying "conflict process" remained unchanged. This shift seems related to changes in aid flows since the Cold War: donors became disinclined to provide support during conflict, but more inclined after conflict. These findings are buttressed by the post-conflict experience of countries that received financial assistance from the IMF and of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). These findings have implications for policy and aid priorities after conflict.
June 1, 2004
Money-Based Versus Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: Is There Space for Political Opportunism?
Description: In response to high and chronic inflation, countries have adopted different stabilization policies. However, the extent to which these stabilization programs were designed for political motives is not clear. Since exchange-rate-based stabilizations (ERBS) create an initial consumption boom followed by a contraction, whereas money-based stabilizations (MBS) generate a consumption bust followed by a recovery, policymakers may consider the timing of elections when determining the nominal anchor for stabilization. This paper finds strong evidence that the choice of nominal anchor depends on elections, implying the existence of political opportunism. ERBS are, on average, launched before elections while MBS are set after them.