Working Papers
2005
April 1, 2005
Following Germany’s Lead: Using International Monetary Linkages to Identify the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Economy
Description: Forward-looking behavior on the part of the monetary authority leads least squares estimates to understate the true growth consequences of monetary policy interventions. We present instrumental variables estimates of the impact of interest rates on real output growth for several European countries, using German interest rates as the instrument. We show that the difference between least squares and instrumental variables estimates provides bounds for the degree of endogeneity in monetary policy. The results confirm a considerable downward bias of estimates that do not account for potential forward-looking monetary policy decisions. The bias is higher for countries whose monetary policy was more independent of Germany.
April 1, 2005
Net Foreign Asset Positions and Consumption Dynamics in the International Economy
Description: We examine the effect of non-zero, long-run foreign asset positions on consumption dynamics in response to productivity shocks in a two-country, dynamic, general equilibrium model, with different discount factors across countries populated by overlapping generations of households. We then compare the model results to those of a VAR for the United States versus the rest of the G-7. In the data, we find that permanent worldwide productivity shocks lead to net foreign asset and consumption dynamics that are consistent with interpreting the United States as the impatient economy in our model and are not consistent with symmetric models with equal discount factors.
April 1, 2005
A Fiscal Price Tag for International Reserves
Description: This paper examines the (quasi-)fiscal impact of the (opportunity) cost of international reserves. It proposes a conceptual framework, with particular emphasis on two hitherto somewhat neglected aspects: a more appropriate measure of gross opportunity cost, and potential savings from lower external debt spreads that countries "buy" by holding reserves. The framework is then applied to 100 countries over 1990-2004. The results suggest that a turning point has been reached in recent years: while most countries made money on their reserves during 1990-2001, most have been losing money during 2002-04.
April 1, 2005
Transparency in Central Bank Financial Statement Disclosures
Description: The IMF's development of the Code of Good Practices on Transparency in Monetary and Financial Policies and the introduction of safeguards assessments have increased emphasis on transparency of the disclosures made in central bank financial statements. This paper, which updates WP/00/186, looks at the disclosure requirements for central banks under International Financial Reporting Standards and provides practical guidance for those responsible for preparing central bank financial statements.
April 1, 2005
Estimating the Implicit Inflation Target: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy
Description: This paper proposes a new method of estimating the Taylor rule with a time-varying implicit inflation target and a time-varying natural rate of interest. The inflation target and the natural rate are modeled as random walks and are estimated using maximum likelihood and the Kalman filter. I apply this method to U.S. monetary policy over the past 25 years and find considerable time variation in the implicit target, confirming hypotheses about "opportunistic disinflation" and the recent "deflation scare."
April 1, 2005
A Post-Reflation Monetary Framework for Japan
Description: Modifications to Japan's monetary policy framework will be needed as positive inflation resumes because the current monetary regime and operations are tailored to ending deflation. The paper suggests that the monetary regime should move from an "anti-deflation" objective to an inflation objective, complemented by a shift of monetary operations from a quantitative operating target to an interest rate target. There are also questions about the timing of these shifts and the particulars of such arrangements, but decisive answers are elusive.
April 1, 2005
Central Bank Losses and Experiences in Selected Countries
Description: Under normal circumstances, a central bank should be able to operate at a profit with a core level of earnings derived from seigniorage. Losses have, however, arisen in several central banks from a range of activities including monetary operations under extreme conditions and financial sector restructuring. The paper discusses the impact of losses on central bank operations and lays out the principles and practices for handling central bank losses. It is suggested that losses should be disclosed as a reduction of the central bank's net worth unless covered by the government. Governments may cover losses through recapitalization of the central bank, and this will create a new central bank asset, usually in the form of government securities held by the central bank. Six case studies illustrate the circumstances under which losses may arise, their coverage, and central banks' disclosure practices.
April 1, 2005
Setting the Stage for a National Currency in the West Bank and Gaza: The Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
Description: This paper sheds light on the quantitative behavioral responses of key economic variables in the Palestinian economy in the face of major economic shocks and draws implications for the choice of an exchange rate regime should a decision be taken to introduce a national currency. Time-series regression analysis shows that (i) wages and prices are flexible in the face of various shocks; (ii) the real wage appears rigid in the face of various shocks and increases despite higher unemployment; (iii) an appreciation of the new Israeli Sheqalim real effective exchange rate decreases exports and imports; and (iv) money demand appears stable in the face of exchange rate shocks. Although a fixed exchange rate system may initially be desirable to establish credibility of the new currency, some flexibility of the exchange rate is desirable over time.
March 1, 2005
The Impact of Terrorism on Financial Markets
Description: The terrorist attacks that have occurred in the past few years around the world have raised international awareness of the danger of terrorism and its complex repercussions on the financial markets. This paper explores the ways in which financial markets reacted to the attacks and the authorities' responses. Well-functioning financial markets, bolstered by the prompt and effective reaction of the relevant authorities, were generally efficient in absorbing shocks stemming from terrorist attacks. The paper discusses market and regulatory responses to the terrorist attacks and the elements that should be strengthened so as to further enhance the resilience of financial markets to terrorism.
March 1, 2005
Establishing a Performance Management Framework for Government
Description: Based on the experience of budget management reforms that have been introduced over the last two decades in a large number of member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) it is not uncommon to find emerging market economies moving toward performance-based budgeting where measures of performance play a key role. While it might be tempting for middle income countries to press forward to adopt a full-blown outputs and outcomes framework, there are some risks in the move. Such a change in orientation is only possible once managers have had adequate experience in refining the definition of programs and their objectives, and on this basis developing a comprehensive system of performance measurement. It is argued in this paper that to develop a comprehensive performance measurement system requires resolving a number of issues involved in clearly defining how to measure "performance" as well as overcoming a number of technical issues in the design and use of measures of that "performance." However, perhaps the most critical step is introducing a system whereby performance information can influence resource allocation decisions, i.e., establishing a performance management system. Based on international experience, this paper reviews each of these hurdles in moving toward a performance management framework.