Working Papers
2006
October 1, 2006
Diversity in the Workplace
Description: We study a model where an employer, trying to fill a vacancy, engages in optimal sequential search by drawing from two subpopulations of candidates who differ in their "discourse systems": during an interview, a minority candidate with a discourse system not shared with the employer conveys a noisier unbiased signal of ability than does a majority candidate. We show that, when the employer is "selective," minority candidates are underrepresented in the permanent workforce, fired at greater rates, and underrepresented among initial hires, even though the employer has no taste for discrimination and the populations are alike in their average ability. Furthermore, workplace diversity is increased if: (1) the cost of firing is reduced, (2) the cost of interviewing is increased, (3) the opportunity cost of leaving the position unfilled is increased, or (4) the prior probability that a candidate can perform the job is increased. Indeed, if the prior probability is sufficiently high, or the cost of firing sufficiently low, then minority candidates may be overrepresented in the permanent workforce.
October 1, 2006
Barriers to Retail Competition and Prices: Evidence From Spain
Description: Why do prices in Spain's regions fail to converge? The prime suspects for this puzzling result are differences in regional barriers to entry in retail distribution. This paper develops a Cournot-Nash model of imperfect competition to illustrate the effect of barriers on prices. A unique data set-derived from an extensive analysis of competition policies in Spain- provides evidence that barriers to entry increase regional prices. The evidence also suggests that, consistent with the model's predictions, barriers to entry raise prices up to a point, and thus indicate that barriers have a threshold effect on prices.
October 1, 2006
A Debt Overhang Model for Low-Income Countries: Implications for Debt Relief
Description: The paper presents a theoretical model to explain how debt overhang is generated in low-income countries and discusses its implications for debt relief. The paper indicates that the extent of debt overhang, and the effectiveness of debt relief, would depend on a recipient country's initial economic conditions and level of total factor productivity.
October 1, 2006
External Adjustment and Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Brazil
Description: This paper investigates the factors behind the significant improvement in Brazil's external accounts and wide fluctuations of the real exchange rate since the floating of the real in 1999. Particular attention is devoted to the strong appreciation of the real from 2003-05. Econometric estimates of of behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model for Brazil show that most of this appreciation was an equilibrium response to improved economic fundamentals.
October 1, 2006
How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China
Description: Increased attention is being paid to assessments of the actual values of countries' real exchange rates relative to their "equilibrium" values as suggested by "fundamental" determining factors. This paper assesses the robustness of alternative approaches and models commonly used to derive equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Using China's currency to illustrate this analysis, the variance in estimates raises serious questions regarding how robust the results are. The basic conclusion from the tests used here is that, at least for China, small changes in model specifications, explanatory variable definitions, and time periods used in estimation can lead to very substantial differences in equilibrium real exchange rate estimates. Thus, such estimates should be treated with great caution.
October 1, 2006
The Limits of Market-Based Risk Transfer and Implications for Managing Systemic Risks
Description: The paper discusses the limits to market-based risk transfer in the financial system and the implications for the management of systemic long-term financial risks. Financial instruments or markets to transfer and better manage these risks across institutions and sectors are, as yet, either nascent or nonexistent. As such, the paper investigates why these markets remain "incomplete." It also explores a range of options by which policymakers may encourage the development of these markets as part of governments' role as a risk manager.
October 1, 2006
Fiscal Determinants of Inflation: A Primer for the Middle East and North Africa
Description: Many countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region have recently experienced surges in money growth that apparently have not generated significant inflationary pressures. Moreover, several MENA countries have followed monetary policy rules that according to standard monetary theory should have produced macroeconomic instability and possibly hyperinflation. We argue that the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level could usefully provide insights on these developments. Our main conclusion is that a sound fiscal position constitutes a necessary condition for macroeconomic stability whereas "sound" monetary policy is neither sufficient nor necessary. Hence, fiscal policy and public debt deserve particular attention for maintaining macroeconomic stability, by and large consistent with Fund policy advice to MENA countries.
September 1, 2006
Financial Integration in the West African Economic and Monetary Union
Description: This study assesses the degree of financial integration in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). The structure of the financial sector and its institutional arrangements indicate that financial integration is well advanced in some aspects. Common and foreign ownership of banks is very high and cross-border transactions are frequent in the government securities markets. Common institutions help achieve a high degree of similarity of rules. There is nonetheless scope for further financial integration as indicated by persistent deviations from the law of one price, limited cross-border bank transactions, and differences in treatment. Policy measures could therefore help achieve greater financial convergence.
September 1, 2006
The External Financing of Emerging Market Countries: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization
Description: We trace the history of where and why investors from the most advanced countries directed funds, ultimately helping finance economic development in emerging market countries. To do this, we analyze the determinants of international investors' willingness to hold the external liabilities issued by emerging market countries, through cross-country regressions for both prices (bond spreads) and quantities (bond market capitalization or stocks of external liabilities) estimated at various points during two waves of financial globalization (1870-1913 and the present time). The data are drawn from primary sources for the historical period, and the much-expanded, new vintage of the Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2006) data set for the modern period. The results suggest that, throughout the past one and a half centuries, a combination of human capital (including informal human capital) and institutional quality has been a key determinant of emerging market countries' ability to attract international investors.
September 1, 2006
The Stock Market and the Financing of Corporate Growth in Africa: The Case of Ghana
Description: This paper examines the corporate financing pattern in Ghana. In particular, it investigates whether Singh's theoretically anomalous findings that developing country firms make considerably more use of external finance and new equity issues than developed country firms to finance asset growth hold in the case of Ghana. Replicating Singh's methodology, our results show that compared with corporations in advanced countries, the average listed Ghanaian firm finances its growth of total assets mainly from short-term debt. The stock market, however, is the most important source of long-term finance for listed Ghanaian firms. Overall, the evidence in this paper suggests that the stock market is a surprisingly important source of finance for funding corporate growth and that stock market development in Ghana has been important.