Working Papers
2006
December 1, 2006
Trade Liberalization, Macroeconomic Adjustment, and Welfare: Unifying Trade and Macro Models
Description: Trade liberalization leads to long-run gains, but it can also involve costly short-run macroeconomic adjustment. The paper explores the relative importance of these effects within a dynamic general equilibrium model that captures key elements of both international trade and macroeconomic models. The welfare effect of trade liberalization is decomposed into a steady-state efficiency gain and a transitional loss associated with wage-price stickiness. Our estimates show that the transitional loss is small relative to the steady-state gain, and tends to be lower under flexible as compared to fixed exchange rates. We also show that the loss can be reduced further by a flexible price-level targeting policy rule.
December 1, 2006
On Myopic Equilibria in Dynamic Games with Endogenous Discounting
Description: This paper derives an equilibrium for a competitive multi-stage game in which an agents' current action influences his probability of survival into the next round of play. This is directly relevant in banking, where a banks' current lending and pricing decisions determines its future probability of default. In technical terms, our innovation is to consider a multi-stage game with endogenous discounting. An equilibrium for such a multi-stage game with endogenous discounting has not been derived before in the literature.
December 1, 2006
The Shortcomings of a Partial Release of Employment Protection Laws: The Case of the 2005 French Reform
Description: This paper proposes an ex ante evaluation of the effects of new labor contracts such as the "Contrat Nouvelle Embauche" (CNE) introduced in France in 2005. The lessons we draw are of sufficiently general interest to be applicable to other countries or reforms of employment protection laws. Using a model that captures the characteristics of the French labor market, we simulate the effects of this reform on unemployment, employment, and welfare. We estimate that the CNE will lead to the creation of 70,000 additional jobs in the long run, but at the cost of a slight deterioration in welfare.
December 1, 2006
A VAR Analysis of Kenya’s Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism: How Does the Central Bank’s REPO Rate Affect the Economy?
Description: This paper examines the impact of a monetary policy shock on output, prices, and the nominal effective exchange rate for Kenya using data during 1997–2005. Based on techniques commonly used in the vector autoregression literature, the main results suggest that an exogenous increase in the short-term interest rate tends to be followed by a decline in prices and appreciation in the nominal exchange rate, but has insignificant impact on output. Moreover, the paper finds that variations in the short-term interest rate account for significant fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate and prices, while accounting little for output fluctuations.
December 1, 2006
Regulatory Lessons from the Crisis of Costa Rica’s Mutual Fund Industry
Description: In 2004, the mutual fund industry of Costa Rica experienced a massive run by investors that reduced the industry to half its size in a month. This paper explores how weaknesses in the regulatory framework played a role in the crisis and draws lessons for developing countries. The analysis of events demonstrates the need for developing countries to design a multi-pillar framework for securities regulation as well as to strengthen financial literacy and capacity building. At the micro level it shows the importance of market conduct rules and the challenges that the implementation of mark-to-market poses for developing markets.
December 1, 2006
The IMF’s Reserves Template and Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility
Description: The effects of the adoption of the IMF's International Reserves and Foreign Currency Liquidity Data Template on nominal exchange rate volatility are investigated for 48 countries. Estimation of panel data models indicates that nominal exchange rate volatility decreases following dissemination of reserves template data while the effects of indebtedness and reserve adequacy on volatility exhibit statistically significant changes.
December 1, 2006
Rethinking the Governance of the International Monetary Fund
Description: This paper attempts to set out the principal issues that need to be resolved in formulating a proposal for quotas and voice reform in the IMF that could command broad support. Following John Rawls, we argue that "justice is the first virtue of social institutions," and we use his theory of justice to provide a method for understanding what should be the case, in the context of voice and voting shares, before international institutions, such as the IMF, are to be justifiable to their members. The implementation of this process suggests, among other things, that a major revision of the quota formulas is long overdue, and leaving this unaddressed raises serious questions regarding the IMF's governance which could develop into a core mission risk and jeopardize the relevance of the institution.
December 1, 2006
Is Asia Prepared for an Aging Population?
Description: Many Asian countries (such as China, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and the Philippines) will experience a significant aging of their populations during the next several decades. This paper explores how these aging Asian countries are addressing and anticipating the challenges of an aging society. It suggests that Asia's preparedness for an aging population is decidedly mixed. While growth policies have been successful, much work is still needed in many countries to establish an adequate and farsighted policy framework in the areas of pensions, health insurance, and labor market policies.
December 1, 2006
The Size Distribution of Firms, Cournot, and Optimal Taxation
Description: Tax laws and administrations often treat different size firms differently. There is, however, little research on the consequences. As modeled here, oligopolists with different efficiencies determine the size distribution of firms. A government that maximizes a weighted sum of consumer surplus, profits, and tax receipts can tax firms with different efficiencies differently and provides a reference point for other, more restricted differential tax systems. Taxes include a specific sales tax, an ad valorem sales tax, and a profits tax with imperfect deductibility of capital cost, and a combination of the last two. In general there is a pattern of tax rates by efficiency of firm. It is heavily dependent on the social valuation of tax receipts. Analytic and simulation results are provided. When both ad valorem taxes and the imperfect profits tax are combined, simulations suggest that the former rate is higher and the latter rate is lower for relatively inefficient firms.
December 1, 2006
Making Fiscal Space Happen: Managing Fiscal Policy in a World of Scaled-Up Aid
Description: Debt relief and the scaling up of aid to low-income countries should allow for greater fiscal space for expenditure programs to create long-term growth and lower poverty rates. But designing a suitable medium-term fiscal framework that fosters a sustainable delivery of better public services and infrastructure while maintaining a credible commitment to fiscal prudence confronts many challenges. This paper discusses what low-income countries can do to shape fiscal policy frameworks that are ambitious in trying to absorb additional aid while still ensuring longer-term sustainability for government expenditure programs and finances. It suggests what approaches can be used to manage the greater fiscal policy risks associated with a scaled-up aid environment, including coordination with monetary policy. The paper also discusses what institutional changes are needed if donors and countries are to facilitate the implementation of a higher level of aid-financed spending programs.