Working Papers
2008
December 1, 2008
Hong Kong SAR Economic Integration with the Pearl River Delta
Description: Hong Kong SAR's economic integration with the Mainland has primarily taken place in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). Taking stock of integration trends, this paper discusses key implications for ensuring economic benefits of further integration are sustained and associated costs minimized. Besides further investments in infrastructure, Hong Kong SAR's role as a producers services and finance hub will depend on frictionless movements of goods, services, people and know-how, requiring policy coordination to further promote trade and investment and developing a common human skills base with the PRD. Regional cooperation will also be needed to minimize the costs of rising levels of cross-border pollution.
December 1, 2008
One-Size-Fits-One: Tailor-Made Fiscal Responses to Capital Flows
Description: This paper surveys policy responses in recent years to capital inflows in a diverse group of countries that are represented by the Netherlands at the IMF Executive Board. Based on the findings from cross-country empirical literature, the paper distills some guiding principles for policy responses to excessive capital inflows, depending on country-specific circumstances and with a particular focus on fiscal policy. In addition to considering the conventional macroeconomic and structural policy tools, the paper also discusses the role of microfiscal policies in affecting the size and the composition of capital inflows. While conditions in these countries have changed very recently, the policy principles remain salient.
November 1, 2008
The Tasks Ahead
Description: This note, prepared ahead of the G20 Summit (November 15), builds upon the points laid out in the Managing Director’s letter to the Heads of State and Government (November 9). It lays out two tasks ahead for policy makers. Policies for now should cover:(i)implementing and coordinating policies to sustain demand; (ii) providing liquidity support to emerging economies; and (iii) protecting low-income countries. Longer term reforms of the financial architecture should touch upon:(i) the design of financial regulation; (ii) a better way of assessing systemic risk; and (iii) mechanisms for more effective actions for crisis prevention and resolution.
November 1, 2008
Strategic Considerations for First-Time Sovereign Bond Issuers
Description: The recent round of debt relief has restored debt sustainability in many low-income countries (LICs). This, along with a continued search for yield and desire for portfolio diversification by investors, has increased the range of viable financing options, including international bonds, for many emerging market (EM) economies and LICs. This paper presents some of the advantages and disadvantages of international debut bonds, within a debt sustainability framework. It outlines key preconditions and discusses strategic considerations that countries need to take into account when contemplating bond issuance in international markets for the first time. In this context, the paper also discusses some typical pitfalls in accessing international capital markets, including excessive issue size relative to the intended use of bond proceeds, issuance of bullet bonds, and inadequate preparation for accessing the markets.
November 1, 2008
Fundamentals at Odds? The U.S. Current Account Deficit and The Dollar
Description: The real effective exchange rate of the dollar is close to its minimum level for the past 4decades (as of September 2008). At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and currentaccount deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, wouldcontribute to a further accumulation of U.S. external liabilities. The paper discusses thetension between these two aspects of the dollar assessment, and what factors can helpreconcile them. It focuses in particular on the terms of trade, adjustment lags, andmeasurement issues related to both the real effective exchange rate and the current accountbalance.
November 1, 2008
Is it (Still) Mostly Fiscal? Determinants of Sovereign Spreads in Emerging Markets
Description: Using a panel of 30 emerging market economies from 1997 to 2007, this paper investigates the determinants of country risk premiums as measured by sovereign bond spreads. Unlike previous studies, the results indicate that both fiscal and political factors matter for credit risk in emerging markets. Lower levels of political risk are associated with tighter spreads, while efforts at fiscal consolidation narrow credit spreads, especially in countries that experienced prior defaults. The composition of fiscal policy matters: spending on public investment contributes to lower spreads as long as the fiscal position remains sustainable and the fiscal deficit does not worsen.
November 1, 2008
Counterparty Risk in the Over-The-Counter Derivatives Market
Description: The financial market turmoil of recent months has highlighted the importance of counterparty risk. Here, we discuss counterparty risk that may stem from the OTC derivatives markets and attempt to assess the scope of potential cascade effects. This risk is measured by losses to the financial system that may result via the OTC derivative contracts from the default of one or more banks or primary broker-dealers. We then stress the importance of "netting" within the OTC derivative contracts. Our methodology shows that, even using data from before the worsening of the crisis in late Summer 2008, the potential cascade effects could be very substantial. We summarize our results in the context of the stability of the banking system and provide some policy measures that could be usefully considered by the regulators in their discussions of current issues.
November 1, 2008
Creating Sustainable Fiscal Space for Infrastructure: The Case of Tanzania
Description: A common dilemma facing governments around the world is how to meet the sizeable fiscal costs of providing and maintaining infrastructure networks. Over the past decade, developed and developing countries have looked to fiscal rules, budgetary reforms, tax policy and administration measures, public-private partnerships and other innovative financial instruments to raise additional finance for infrastructure investment. This paper looks at the range of options for raising the financing to meet Tanzania's infrastructure needs. It begins with a brief survey of the evidence on the relationship between infrastructure, public investment, and economic growth, and then goes on to consider the case for additional infrastructure investment in Tanzania. The second part of the paper looks at five broad options for mobilizing additional resources to meet Tanzania's infrastructure needs: (i) direct private investment and PPPs, (ii) expenditure reprioritization and efficiency, (iii) domestic revenue mobilization, (iv) external grants and concessional financing, and (v) sovereign borrowing on domestic or international credit markets. The paper concludes with some general recommendations on what combination of the above approaches might be suitable for Tanzania.
November 1, 2008
Stress Testing Household Debt in Korea
Description: Korean household debt has reached 148 percent of disposable income, high by emerging market standards. Most of this debt remains at variable rates, shifting the interest rate risk from better diversified financial institutions to households and increasing their sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks. This paper examines the sources of, and risks from, household debt by employing stress tests on household level panel data. Results suggest that a 100-300 bps increase in interest rates could increase distressed household debt household debt by 8½?17 percentage points (ppt). A drop in real estate prices by 10?30 percent could add another 4 ppt to distressed debt. Ongoing transition to amortizing mortgages in 2008?09 presents additional challenges as interest payments on debt are likely to increase further.
November 1, 2008
Sovereign Wealth Funds: Current Institutional and Operational Practices
Description: While SWFs as a group share broad common institutional and operational practices, these practices also differ considerably reflecting the diversity of these institutions. These differences derive from the nature of the SWF (i.e., their original intent) as well as its legal personality. Thus, while SWF practices will continue to evolve, the fundamental objectives of different types of SWFs will continue to shape their practices going forward.