Working Papers
2009
December 1, 2009
Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Borrowing Constraints
Description: We study the welfare properties of an economy where both monetary and fiscal policy follow simple rules, and where a subset of agents is borrowing constrained. The optimized fiscal rule is far more aggressive than automatic stabilizers, and stabilizes the income of borrowingconstrained agents, rather than output. The optimized monetary rule features super-inertia and a very low coefficient on inflation, which minimizes real wage volatility. The welfare gains of optimizing the fiscal rule are far larger than the welfare gains of optimizing the monetary rule. The preferred fiscal instruments are government spending and transfers targeted to borrowing-constrained agents.
December 1, 2009
Trade and Thy Neighbor’s War
Description: This paper examines the spatial dispersion effects of regional conflicts, defined as internal or external armed conflicts in contiguous states, on international trade. Our empirical findings-based on different measures of conflict constructed using alternate definitions of contiguity and conflict-reveal a significant collateral damage in terms of foregone trade as a result of spillovers from conflict in neighboring countries. The magnitude of this negative externality is somewhat larger for international conflicts than intrastate warfare, but about one-third of conflict in the host economies. Further, the impact is persistent-on average, it takes bilateral trade three years to recover from the end of intrastate conflicts in neighboring states, and five years from international conflicts. These findings are robust to alternate definitions of conflict, estimation methods, and specifications, and underscore the importance of taking into account spillover effects when estimating the economic costs of warfare.
December 1, 2009
“Lost Decade” in Translation - What Japan’s Crisis could Portend about Recovery from the Great Recession
Description: Is the recovery from the global financial crisis now secured? A strikingly similar crisis that stalled Japan's growth miracle two decades ago could provide some clues. This paper explores the parallels and draws potential implications for the current global outlook and policies. Japan's experiences suggest four broad lessons. First, green shoots do not guarantee a recovery, implying a need to be cautious about the outlook. Second, financial fragilities can leave an economy vulnerable to adverse shocks and should be resolved for a durable recovery. Third, well-calibrated macroeconomic stimulus can facilitate this adjustment, but carries increasing costs. And fourth, while judging the best time to exit from policy support is difficult, clear medium-term plans may help.
December 1, 2009
Cyclical Patterns of Government Expenditures in Sub-Saharan Africa: Facts and Factors
Description: This paper documents cyclical patterns of government expenditures in sub-Saharan Africa since 1970 and explains variation between countries and over time. Controlling for endogeneity, it finds government expenditures to be slightly more procyclical in sub-Saharan Africa than in other developing countries and some evidence that procyclicality in Africa has declined in recent years after a period of sharp increase through the 1990s. Greater fiscal space, proxied by lower external debt, and better access to concessional financing, proxied by larger aid flows, seem to be important factors in diminishing procyclicality in the region. The role of institutions is less clear cut: changes in political institutions have no impact on procyclicality.
December 1, 2009
Foreign Bank Entry and Credit Allocation in Emerging Markets
Description: We employ a unique data set containing bank-specific information to explore how foreign bank entry determines credit allocation in emerging markets. We investigate the impact of the mode of foreign entry (greenfield or takeover) on banks' portfolio allocation to borrowers with different degrees of informational transparency, as well as by maturities and currencies. The impact of foreign entry on credit allocation may stem from the superior performance of foreign entrants ("performance hypothesis"), or reflect borrower informational capture ("portfolio composition hypothesis"). Our results are broadly in line with the portfolio composition hypothesis, showing that borrower informational capture determines bank credit allocation.m
December 1, 2009
A Framework to Assess the Effectiveness of IMF Technical Assistance in National Accounts
Description: This paper analyzes the effectiveness of technical assistance provided by AFRITAC West (AFW) in the area of national accounts using the Fund's Technical Assistance Information Management System (TAIMS). The challenge has been to report on "ultimate outcomes" (i.e., the production and dissemination of national accounts statistics along best international practices) rather than on "inputs" (i.e., the number of national accounts missions fielded by AFW), as it has been the case to date. The paper concludes that the "ultimate outcome" of producing and disseminating robust national accounts is work in progress, with AFW's technical assistance efforts mainly focusing on source data assessments and methodological issues underpinning the compilation of national accounts. The pending challenge is to further support a more timely production and dissemination of national accounts data, as recommended in the Data ROSCs and by the IMF mission teams to AFW member countries.
December 1, 2009
Oil Rents, Corruption, and State Stability - Evidence From Panel Data Regressions
Description: We examine the effects of oil rents on corruption and state stability exploiting the exogenous within-country variation of a new measure of oil rents for a panel of 31 oil-exporting countries during the period 1992 to 2005. We find that an increase in oil rents significantly increases corruption, significantly deteriorates political rights while at the same time leading to a significant improvement in civil liberties. We argue that these findings can be explained by the political elite having an incentive to extend civil liberties but reduce political rights in the presence of oil windfalls to evade redistribution and conflict. We support our argument documenting that there is a significant effect of oil rents on corruption in countries with a high share of state participation in oil production while no such link exists in countries where state participation in oil production is low.
December 1, 2009
Emerging Economy Responses to the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–09 - An Empirical Analysis of the Liquidity Easing Measures
Description: This paper draws on a unique data set on the nontraditional systemic liquidity easing measures recently undertaken by many emerging market economies. It offers an empirical analysis of the key determinants affecting the decision to undertake these measures over the period September 2008-March 2009. The paper finds that economy size, access to international credit markets, CDS spreads, currency depreciation, and current account balances are among the key factors influencing the adoption of these measures. It provides a rationale for the differences in central bank policy responses, which reflect differences in economic structures rather than conflicting views on fundamental principles. The paper also provides a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of these measures and points out that despite their positive impacts, they have not fully shielded the real economy from the recent financial meltdown.
December 1, 2009
Investment-Specific Productivity Growth - Chile in a Global Perspective
Description: By the end of 2007, Chile's total factor productivity was lower than ten years earlier, a performance that contrasted sharply with the previous decade, when productivity grew by a cumulative 30 percent. This paper assesses productivity trends in Chile, by decomposing productivity into investment-specific technological change (associated with improvements in the quality of capital) and neutral technological change (related to the organization of productive activities). It concludes that investment-specific technological improvements have contributed significantly to long-term growth in Chile, in line with trends observed in other net commodity exporters, while neutral technological change has been slow.
December 1, 2009
Estimating Demand for IMF Financing by Low-Income Countries in Response to Shocks
Description: This paper estimates factors affecting demand for Fund financing by Low-Income Countries (LICs) in response to policy and exogenous shocks. Various economic variables including reserve coverage, current account balance to GDP, real GDP growth, macroeconomic stability, and terms of trade shocks are found to be significant determinants of Fund financing. Moreover, global conditions, including changes in real oil and non-oil commodity prices and world trade, are also significant. Therefore, the demand for Fund financing by LICs is likely to be cyclical in response to common shocks with its intensity depending on the severity and persistence of adverse shocks.