A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones

By Michele Fornino, Mahmut Kutlukaya, Caterina Lepore, Javier Uruñuela López

July 9, 2024

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Michele Fornino, Mahmut Kutlukaya, Caterina Lepore, and Javier Uruñuela López. A Multi-Country Study of Forward-Looking Economic Losses from Floods and Tropical Cyclones, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed November 9, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The study provides forward-looking estimates for economic damages from floods and tropical cyclones (TC) for a wide range of countries using global datasets. Damages are estimated for three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and aggregated at the country level, building them from geographically disaggregated estimates of hazard severity and economic exposures across 183 countries. The results show that, for most countries, floods and TC’s damage rates increase (i) during the estimation span of 2020 to 2100, and (ii) with more severe global warming scenarios. In line with other global studies, expected floods and TCs damages are unevenly distributed across the world. The estimates can be used for a wide range of applications, as damage rates represent the key variable connecting climate scenarios to economics and financial sector risk analysis.

Subject: Climate change, Environment, Natural disasters

Keywords: Climate change, Climate scenario analysis, Damage function, Damage functions, Damage rate, East Africa, Economic losses, Floods, Forward-looking climate projections, Global, Natural disasters, Rate relative, South America, Southeast Asia, Tcs damage, Tropical Cyclones

Publication Details

Pages:

45
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2024/141
Stock No:

WPIEA2024141
ISBN:

9798400280559
ISSN:

1018-5941

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