Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe
IMF Working Papers, May 31, 2024
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- Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: Armand P Fouejieu, Shakill Hassan, Ruben V Atoyan, Yiran Zha
- Published: May 31, 2024
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400276118.001
Overview
- The European continent is warming at more than twice the global average.
- Human and economic costs of higher temperature and more frequent and extreme natural disasters are already substantial in Europe and are expected to increase further unless suitable adaptation strategies are implemented.
- The paper emphasizes that while Europe's overall vulnerability to climate risks is lower than other regions’, countries in Central and Eastern Europe face greater human and economic costs from climate disasters compared to their advanced European peers, with these gaps likely to increase in the future.
Methods and Analytical Approach
- An ensemble of climate models is used to project future climates for each country in Europe.
- For each country, the analysis identifies the country whose present climate best approximates the projected future climate (climate analogue approach).
- Country-level macro analyses of natural disasters are calibrated using information on countries’ representative future exposure to climate risks.
- The macro analysis focuses on how investment in adaptative infrastructure can help mitigate shocks from natural disasters.
Key Findings
- Adaptation infrastructure can significantly reduce output losses from natural disasters.
- Investment in adaptation can mitigate medium-term economic scarring and support sustainable long-term growth.
- Central and Eastern European countries face greater projected human and economic costs from climate disasters relative to advanced European peers.
- Effective implementation of adaptation strategies in EMEs/LICs is likely to be constrained by:
- limited domestic financial resources,
- weaker institutional quality.
- Without external support, implementation constraints may create policy trade-offs.
Policy Implications and Recommendations
- Scale up investment in adaptative infrastructure to reduce output losses from natural disasters and to mitigate medium-term economic scarring.
- Prioritize external support for EMEs/LICs to overcome constraints posed by limited domestic financial resources and weaker institutional quality.
- Recognize and address potential policy trade-offs when adaptation strategies are implemented without adequate external assistance.
Key Statistics and Publication Metadata
- Publication date: May 31, 2024
- Pages: 40
- Series: Working Paper No. 2024/109
- Issue: 109
- Volume: 2024
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400276118.001
- ISBN: 9798400276118
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Subject keywords: Climate change, Environment, Greenhouse gas emissions, Infrastructure, National accounts, Natural disasters
- Keywords: adaptation, adaptation investment, climate analogue, Climate analogue, climate analogues., Climate change, Europe, Global, Greenhouse gas emissions, Infrastructure, investment, investment in adaptative infrastructure, macro macro impact, Macroeconomics of climate, Natural disasters, public debt
Armand P Fouejieu, Shakill Hassan, Ruben V Atoyan, and Yiran Zha. "Weathering Tomorrow: Climate Analogues and Adaptation Gaps in Europe", IMF Working Papers 2024, 109 (2024), accessed 9/17/2026, https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400276118.001
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- Working Paper