Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections

By Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, Fabio Farinosi

March 15, 2024

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Cristina Cattaneo, Emanuele Massetti, Shouro Dasgupta, and Fabio Farinosi. Climate Variability and Worldwide Migration: Empirical Evidence and Projections, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

We estimate a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in origin countries. Using the parameter estimates of the gravity equation, we estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows using different population and climate scenarios. Global emigration flows are projected to increase between 73 and 91 million in 2030-2039; between 83 and 102 million in 2040-2049; between 88 and 121 in 2050-59, and between 87 and 133 million in 2060-2069. Changes in emigration flows are mainly due to population growth in the origin countries.

Subject: Climate change, Environment, Migration, Natural disasters, Population and demographics, Population growth

Keywords: A. migration data, Climate change, Climate scenario, Climate variability, Country-by-country emigration flow, Global, Gravity equation, International Migration., Migration, Natural disasters, Population growth

Publication Details

Pages:

32
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2024/058
Stock No:

WPIEA2024058
ISBN:

9798400270772
ISSN:

1018-5941

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