Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options

September 8, 2023

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Format: Chicago

Shant Arzoumanian. Spillovers from Russia to Neighboring Countries: Transmission Channels and Policy Options, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2023) accessed November 9, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper studies how output fluctuations in Russia are transmitted internationally. Using vector autoregression (VAR) and dynamic panel models, the paper finds that Russia’s output fluctuations are an important driver of output fluctuations of countries in the region, especially for oil importers, and are transmitted increasingly via trade and market confidence channels. The magnitude of cross-border spillovers is larger for countries with relatively high bilateral trade concentration, low export diversification, and weak external buffers. The paper also finds evidence that stronger public institutional quality- especially in the fiscal area- may help insulate countries from volatility in the Russian sovereign debt market.

Subject: Balance of payments, Business cycles, Economic growth, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, Oil prices, Prices, Remittances, Spillovers

Keywords: Annex I. data definition, Business cycles, CIS economy, Emerging markets, Exports, FDI, Global, International business cycles, Market confidence, Oil prices, Output fluctuation, Policy option, Remittances, Spillovers, Spillovers from Russia, Trade

Publication Details

Pages:

46
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2023/185
Stock No:

WPIEA2023185
ISBN:

9798400254871
ISSN:

1018-5941

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