Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space

By Robert C. M. Beyer, Yingyao Hu, Jiaxiong Yao

June 3, 2022

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Format: Chicago

Robert C. M. Beyer, Yingyao Hu, and Jiaxiong Yao. Measuring Quarterly Economic Growth from Outer Space, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper presents a novel framework to estimate the elasticity between nighttime lights and quarterly economic activity. The relationship is identified by accounting for varying degrees of measurement errors in nighttime light data across countries. The estimated elasticity is 1.55 for emerging markets and developing economies, ranging from 1.36 to 1.81 across country groups and robust to different model specifications. The paper uses a light-adjusted measure of quarterly economic activity to show that higher levels of development, statistical capacity, and voice and accountability are associated with more precise national accounts data. The elasticity allows quantification of subnational economic impacts. During the COVID-19 pandemic, regions with higher levels of development and population density experienced larger declines in economic activity.

Subject: COVID-19, Econometric analysis, GDP measurement, Health, National accounts, Population and demographics, Vector autoregression

Keywords: COVID-19, COVID-19., Economic measurement, GDP growth, GDP measure, GDP measurement, Global, Growth measure, Light growth, National accounts, Nighttime lights, Quarterly GDP, Summary statistics, Vector autoregression

Publication Details

Pages:

45
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2022/109
Stock No:

WPIEA2022109
ISBN:

9798400211553
ISSN:

1018-5941

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