IMF Working Papers

A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19

By Ruchir Agarwal, Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, Peter Sands

April 5, 2022

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Ruchir Agarwal, Gita Gopinath, Jeremy Farrar, Richard Hatchett, and Peter Sands. A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-Term Risks of COVID-19, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The pandemic is not over, and the health and economic losses continue to grow. It is now evident that COVID-19 will be with us for the long term, and there are very different scenarios for how it could evolve, from a mild endemic scenario to a dangerous variant scenario. This realization calls for a new strategy that manages both the uncertainty and the long-term risks of COVID-19. There are four key policy implications of such as strategy. First, we need to achieve equitable access beyond vaccines to encompass a comprehensive toolkit. Second, we must monitor the evolving virus and dynamically upgrade the toolkit. Third, we must transition from the acute response to a sustainable strategy toward COVID-19, balanced and integrated with other health and social priorities. Fourth, we need a unified risk-mitigation approach to future infectious disease threats beyond COVID-19. Infectious diseases with pandemic potential are a threat to global economic and health security. The international community should recognize that its pandemic financing addresses a systemic risk to the global economy, not just the development need of a particular country. Accordingly, it should allocate additional funding to fight pandemics and strengthen health systems both domestically and overseas. This will require about $15 billion in grants this year and $10 billion annually after that.

Subject: Communicable diseases, COVID-19, Economic sectors, Financial crises, Health, Health care, Population and demographics

Keywords: Communicable diseases, COVID-19, COVID-19, Economic crisis, Global, Health care, Omicron scenario, Pandemic financing, Pandemics, Policy implication, Risks of COVID-19, Systemic risks, Toolkit approach

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    26

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2022/068

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2022068

  • ISBN:

    9798400205996

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941