Are Low-Skill Women Being Left Behind? Labor Market Evidence from the UK

By Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli, Jay Rappaport

February 25, 2022

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Era Dabla-Norris, Carlo Pizzinelli, and Jay Rappaport. Are Low-Skill Women Being Left Behind? Labor Market Evidence from the UK, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Labor markets in the UK have been characterized by markedly widening wage inequality for lowskill (non-college) women, a trend that predates the pandemic. We examine the contribution of job polarization to this trend by estimating age, period, and cohort effects for the likelihood of employment in different occupations and the wages earned therein over 2001-2019. For recent generations of women, cohort effects indicate a higher likelihood of employment in low-paying manual jobs relative to high-paying abstract jobs. However, cohort effects also underpin falling wages for post-1980 cohorts across all occupations. We find that falling returns to labor rather than job polarization has been a key driver of rising inter-age wage inequality among low-skill females. Wage-level cohort effects underpin a nearly 10 percent fall in expected lifetime earnings for low-skill women born in 1990 relative to those born in 1970.

Subject: Aging, Economic sectors, Employment, Financial crises, Gender, Labor, Labor markets, Population and demographics, Wages, Women

Keywords: Aging, Cohort effect, Cohorts, Employment, Intergenerational inequality, JEL classification number, Job polarization, Job polarization, Labor market evidence, Labor markets, Life-cycle, Occupational choice, Wage inequality, Wages, Women

Publication Details

Pages:

48
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2022/042
Stock No:

WPIEA2022042
ISBN:

9798400202384
ISSN:

1018-5941

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