Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade

By Narek Ghazaryan, Alexei Goumilevski, Joannes Mongardini, Aneta Radzikowski

December 17, 2021

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Format: Chicago

Narek Ghazaryan, Alexei Goumilevski, Joannes Mongardini, and Aneta Radzikowski. Another Piece of the Puzzle: Adding Swift Data on Documentary Collections to the Short-Term Forecast of World Trade, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed November 12, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper extends earlier research by adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms shows significant non-linearities between trade and its determinants during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Subject: Credit, Exports, Imports, International trade, Money, Trade balance, Trade finance

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Australia and New Zealand, Credit, DFM forecast, Exports, Global, IMF working paper No. 21/293, IMF working papers, Imports, Linear regression forecast, Machine learning, Merchandise export, SWIFT, Trade balance, Trade finance, Trade forecast, Trade message

Publication Details

Pages:

63
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/293
Stock No:

WPIEA2021293
ISBN:

9781616357634
ISSN:

1018-5941

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