Energy Transition Metals

By Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori, Martin Stuermer

October 12, 2021

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Lukas Boer, Andrea Pescatori, and Martin Stuermer. Energy Transition Metals, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium. Are these metals a key bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities and pin down the price impact of the energy transition in a structural scenario analysis. Metal prices would reach historical peaks for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario. The total value of metals production would rise more than four-fold for the period 2021 to 2040, rivaling the total value of crude oil production. Metals are a potentially important input into integrated assessments models of climate change.

Subject: Commodities, Copper, Economic theory, Metal prices, Metals, Prices, Supply elasticity

Keywords: Aggregate commodity demand shock, Climate change., Conditional forecasts, Copper, Energy transition, Estimate supply elasticity, Fossil fuels, Global, Metal prices, Metals, Metals, Metals production, Price risk, Prices, Structual scenario analysis, Structural vector autoregressions, Supply elasticity

Publication Details

Pages:

41
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/243
Stock No:

WPIEA2021243
ISBN:

9781513599373
ISSN:

1018-5941

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