IMF Working Papers

A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

By Allan Dizioli, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, Aneta Radzikowski

August 27, 2021

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Allan Dizioli, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, and Aneta Radzikowski. A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed November 12, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.

Subject: Aging, COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Health, Population and demographics

Keywords: Aging, COVID-19, COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Epidemiology modelling, Global, Google mobility, Vaccination assumption, Vaccination data, Vaccine hesitancy, Vaccines impact, Virus variant, Virus variants and testing

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    35

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2021/226

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2021226

  • ISBN:

    9781513594842

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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