A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis

By Allan Dizioli, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, Aneta Radzikowski

August 27, 2021

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Allan Dizioli, Daniel Rivera Greenwood, and Aneta Radzikowski. A Pandemic Forecasting Framework: An Application of Risk Analysis, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper introduces a simple, frequently and easily updated, close to the data epidemiological model that has been used for near-term forecast and policy analysis. We provide several practical examples of how the model has been used. We explain the epidemic development in the UK, the USA and Brazil through the model lens. Moreover, we show how our model would have predicted that a super infectious variant, such as the delta, would spread and argue that current vaccination levels in many countries are not enough to curb other waves of infections in the future. Finally, we briefly discuss the importance of how to model re-infections in epidemiological models.

Subject: Aging, COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Financial markets, Health, Population and demographics

Keywords: Aging, COVID-19, COVID-19, Emerging and frontier financial markets, Epidemiology modelling, Global, Google mobility, Vaccination assumption, Vaccination data, Vaccine hesitancy, Vaccines impact, Virus variant, Virus variants and testing

Publication Details

Pages:

35
Volume:

---
DOI:

---
Issue:

---
Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/226
Stock No:

WPIEA2021226
ISBN:

9781513594842
ISSN:

1018-5941

FACTSHEETS

RESOURCES

TOPICS

Flagship Publications

Other Publications

IMF reports and publications by country

Regional Offices

All News

See Also

For Journalists

Press Center

RESOURCES

FLAGSHIPS

KEY SERIES

IMF NOTES

IMF Working Papers