Scenario Analysis with the DD-PD Mapping Approach: Stock Market Shocks and U.S. Corporate Default Risk

May 20, 2021

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Jorge A Chan-Lau. Scenario Analysis with the DD-PD Mapping Approach: Stock Market Shocks and U.S. Corporate Default Risk, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from quantitative and narrative scenarios informed by expert judgment. At end-2020, risks from stock market corrections in the U.S. are concentrated in the energy, financial and technology sectors, and additional bank capital needs could be large. The paper concludes discussing uses of the mapping beyond PD valuation suitable for capital structure analysis, credit portfolio management, and long-term scenario planning analysis.

Subject: Economic sectors, Financial crises

Keywords: Default risk, Distance-to-default, Probability of default, Quantile regression, Scenario analysis, Stock markets, Stress test

Publication Details

Pages:

24
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/143
Stock No:

WPIEA2021143
ISBN:

9781513573533
ISSN:

1018-5941

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