Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF’s Concessional Financing

January 29, 2021

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Timothy Hills, Huy Nguyen, and Randa Sab. Determinants of Pre-Pandemic Demand for the IMF’s Concessional Financing, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2021) accessed December 30, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This study focuses on identifying the main factors that influenced country-specific and aggregate demand for IMF concessional financing between 1986 and 2018 and makes within-period and out-of-period forecasts. We find that the external debt level, inflation, and real effective exchange rate are the main economic variables influencing concessional borrowing for most eligible countries. Finally, our approach is able to provide quite accurate country-level and aggregate forecasts for historical financing events prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Subject: Concessional external borrowing, Current account balance, External debt, Factor models, Real effective exchange rates

Keywords: Concessional financing, Dynamic factor model, Factor estimation step, Financing arrangement, IMF financing event, IMF staff calculation, Probit regression., WP

Publication Details

Pages:

29
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2021/015
Stock No:

WPIEA2021015
ISBN:

9781513567778
ISSN:

1018-5941

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