Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows

July 3, 2020

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Serhan Cevik. Going Viral: A Gravity Model of Infectious Diseases and Tourism Flows, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2020) accessed November 16, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health infrastructure lags behind.

Subject: Communicable diseases, COVID-19, Ebola, Health, Tourism

Keywords: Infectious disease, WP, Yellow fever

Publication Details

Pages:

19
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2020/112
Stock No:

WPIEA2020112
ISBN:

9781513549101
ISSN:

1018-5941

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