Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked

By Joannes Mongardini, Aneta Radzikowski

May 29, 2020

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Joannes Mongardini, and Aneta Radzikowski. Global Smartphones Sales May Have Peaked, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2020) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Global smartphone sales may have peaked. After reaching nearly 1.5 billion units in 2016, global smartphone sales have since declined, contributing negatively to world trade in 2019 and suggesting that the global market may now be saturated. This paper develops a simple model to forecast smartphone sales, which shows that sales are likely to decline further. As tech companies shift to embedded services (cloud computing, content subscriptions, and financial services), the impact on global trade may also be shifting in favor of services exports mostly from advanced economies.

Subject: Exports, Financial institutions, Financial services, International trade, Mobile internet, Service exports, Stocks, Technology

Keywords: Apple, Apple cash, Asia and Pacific, Exports, Global, Global supply chains, Global trade, ICT services, ICT-enabled services, IPhone, IPhone sale, Merchandise export, Mobile internet, PC sales, Service exports, Services export, Smartphone sale, Stocks, Tech cycle, Trade, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

20
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2020/070
Stock No:

WPIEA2020070
ISBN:

9781513545851
ISSN:

1018-5941

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