IMF Working Papers

Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession

By Szilard Benk, Max Gillman

November 1, 2019

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Szilard Benk, and Max Gillman. Granger Predictability of Oil Prices After the Great Recession, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2019) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970’s oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices, using one adjustment to monetary aggregates. This adjustment is the subtraction from the monetary aggregates of the 2008-2009 Federal Reserve borrowing of reserves from other Central Banks (Swaps), made after US reserves turned negative. This adjustment is key in that Granger predictability from standard monetary aggregates is found only with the Swaps subtracted.

Subject: Consumer price indexes, Gold prices, Inflation, Monetary base, Money, Oil prices, Prices

Keywords: Consumer price indexes, CPI Granger, E510, E520, Excess reserves, Expectations Granger, EXPMICH inflation expectations variable, Gold prices, Granger predictability, Inflation, Inflation expectation, Inflation expectations Granger, Long term inflation expectations Granger, Longer term inflation expectations Granger, M1 Divis-SWP, Monetary base, Oil prices, Predictability CPI inflation, Q43, Sub, WP, WTI price

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    18

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2019/237

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2019237

  • ISBN:

    9781513518626

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941