Short Term Inflation Determinants in Barbados

June 13, 2018

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Gregorio Impavido. Short Term Inflation Determinants in Barbados, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2018) accessed December 23, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Inflation in Barbados is mainly imported. But how are external shocks transmitted to the domestic economy? Shouldn’t there be also a domestic component, albeit very small, given the presence of capital controls? We focus on short term dynamics and contribute to the existing literature in three ways: (i) we identify the process with which inflation expectations are likely to be formed in Barbados; (ii) we add forward looking inflation expectations as one of the main channels through which external monetary shocks are transmitted to the economy; and (iii) we measure the importance of domestic shocks. We find that due to the peg, forward-looking inflation expectations in the reserve currency country are an important component of the inflation expectation process in Barbados and that they are a key channel in the international monetary transmission mechanism. Domestic factors, mainly monetary shocks, also matter given the limited degree of monetary autonomy provided by capital controls.

Subject: Food prices, Import prices, Inflation, International trade, Oil prices, Prices, Terms of trade

Keywords: Barbados, Capital controls, Exchange rate, Food prices, Global, Headline inflation, Import prices, Inflation, Inflation difference equation, Inflation expectation, Inflation expectations number, Inflation underestimation, Monetary transmission, Oil prices, Output gap, Pegged exchange rate, Reviews inflation dynamics, Terms of trade, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2018/134
Stock No:

WPIEA2018134
ISBN:

9781484361580
ISSN:

1018-5941

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