Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil

January 24, 2017

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Format: Chicago

Ivo Krznar, and Troy D Matheson. Financial and Business Cycles in Brazil, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2017) accessed December 3, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

This paper explores the nexus between the financial cycle and business cycle in Brazil. Cycles are estimated using a variety of commonly-used statistical methods and with a small, semistructural model of the Brazilian economy. An advantage of using the model-based approach is that financial and business cycles can be jointly estimated, allowing information from all key economic relationships to be used in a consistent way. The results show that Brazil is now in the downturn phase of the financial cycle. Moreover, the results underscore the importance of macro-financial linkages and highlight risks to the recovery going forward.

Subject: Business cycles, Credit, Credit cycles, Economic growth, Financial cycles, Financial institutions, Financial sector policy and analysis, Money, State-owned banks

Keywords: Business cycle, Business cycles, Credit, Credit cycles, Credit growth, Credit response, Credit shock, Credit slowdown, Financial condition, Financial conditions index, Financial conditions shock, Financial cycle, Financial cycles, Global, Public-sector credit, State-owned banks, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

28
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2017/012
Stock No:

WPIEA2017012
ISBN:

9781475571042
ISSN:

1018-5941

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