The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?

By John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Jaime Guajardo, Nkunde Mwase

May 30, 2013

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John C Bluedorn, Rupa Duttagupta, Jaime Guajardo, and Nkunde Mwase. The Growth Comeback in Developing Economies: A New Hope or Back to the Future?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Growth takeoffs in developing economies have rebounded in the past two decades. Although recent takeoffs have lasted longer than takeoffs before the 1990s, a key question is whether they could unravel like some did in the past. This paper finds that recent takeoffs are associated with stronger economic conditions, such as lower post-takeoff debt and inflation levels; more competitive real exchange rates; and better structural reforms and institutions. The chances of starting a takeoff in the 2000s was triple that before the 1990s, with domestic conditions accounting for most of the increase. The findings suggest that if today’s dynamic developing economies sustain their improved policies; they are more likely to stay on course compared to many of their predecessors.

Subject: Export performance, External debt, Foreign exchange, Income inequality, International trade, National accounts, Public debt, Real exchange rates

Keywords: Convergence, Development, Dynamic LIC, Economy group, Exchange rate, Export performance, Global, Growth, Growth takeoff, IMF staff calculation, Income inequality, LIC takeoff, Low-income countries, Real exchange rates, Saving-investment gap, Takeoff, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

49
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2013/132
Stock No:

WPIEA2013132
ISBN:

9781484321980
ISSN:

1018-5941

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