IMF Working Papers

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis: Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk

By Andreas Jobst, Dale F. Gray

February 27, 2013

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Andreas Jobst, and Dale F. Gray Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis: Estimating Market-Implied Systemic Risk, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2013) accessed December 22, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

Subject: Asset and liability management, Asset valuation, Contingent liabilities, Debt default, External debt, Financial sector policy and analysis, Financial statements, Public financial management (PFM), Systemic risk

Keywords: Asset valuation, Asset volatility, Balance sheet approach, Bank debt, Capital assessment, Capital shortfall, CDS put option value, Conditional tail expectation (CTE), Contingent claims analysis (CCA), Contingent liabilities, Debt default, Equity capital, Equity put option value, Expected loss, Extreme value theory (EVT), Financial market, Financial statements, Global, Implied asset value, Macroprudential policy and surveillance, Market risk exposure, Market value, Put option, Risk-adjusted balance sheets, Stress testing, Systemic CCA, Systemic risk, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    93

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2013/054

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2013054

  • ISBN:

    9781475572780

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941