Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options

September 1, 2005

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Noureddine Krichene. Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2005) accessed December 26, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed market expectations, implying a higher probability mass on crude oil prices remaining above the futures' level. These findings support the view that demand for futures contracts by investors could lead to excessively high price volatility.

Subject: Asset prices, Derivative markets, Oil, Oil prices, Options

Keywords: Futures price, Option price, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2005/174
Stock No:

WPIEA2005174
ISBN:

9781451861938
ISSN:

1018-5941

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