Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy

By Allan Dizioli, Benjamin L Hunt, Wojciech Maliszewski

November 8, 2016

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Allan Dizioli, Benjamin L Hunt, and Wojciech Maliszewski. Spillovers from the Maturing of China’s Economy, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2016) accessed December 25, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

China’s transition to a new growth model continues and the impact has been felt across the globe. Several trends contribute to the ‘maturing’ of China’s economy: i) structural slowing on the convergence path; ii) on-shoring deepening; and iii) demand rebalancing from investment towards consumption. In the short term, financial stress may lead to a cyclical slowdown. This paper discusses and quantifies spillovers to the global economy from these different developments. The analysis is undertaken using the APDMOD and G20MOD, both modules of the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models. For plausible values of these developments, the overall impact on the global economy is not large. However, the impact on China’s closest trading partners and commodity exporters can be notable.

Subject: Commodity prices, Expenditure, Exports, Financial sector policy and analysis, International trade, Prices, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Public investment spending, Spillovers

Keywords: Asia and Pacific, China’s slowdown and rebalancing, Commodity prices, Commodity-net-export position, Exports, Global, Growth convergence path, Growth performance, Growth prospect, Growth showdown, International business cycle, Maturing economy, Maturing process, Model based analysis, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Public investment spending, Spillovers, Tradable goods sector, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

33
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2016/212
Stock No:

WPIEA2016212
ISBN:

9781475552225
ISSN:

1018-5941

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