IMF Working Papers

Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances

By Delia Velculescu

July 1, 2010

Download PDF Order a Print Copy
Order a Print Copy

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Delia Velculescu. Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2010) accessed December 22, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Traditional fiscal indicators focused on measures of current deficits and debt miss the potentially important implications of current policies for future public finances. This could be problematic, including in the case of Europe, where population aging is expected to pose additional fiscal costs not captured by such indicators. To better gauge the state of public finances in the EU27 countries, this paper derives forward-looking fiscal measures of intertemporal net worth both directly from the European Commission’s Aging Working Group’s long-run indicators and using a comprehensive public-sector balance sheet approach. These measures could be used as an "early warning" mechanism and also as a communication device with the public. Current estimates indicate that, on existing policies, the intertemporal net worth of the EU27 is deeply negative, even in excess of its GDP level, and is projected to worsen further over time. This suggests that Europe’s current policies need to be significantly strengthened to bring future liabilities in line with the EU governments’ capacity to generate assets.

Subject: Aging, Fiscal policy, Fiscal sustainability

Keywords: Country, Deficit, GDP, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    32

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2010/177

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2010177

  • ISBN:

    9781455201884

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

You May Also Be Interested In...

Islamic Republic of Mauritania: Staff Report for the 2024 Article IV Consultation, Third Review Under the Arrangements Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criteria, and Second Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Islamic Republic of Mauritania

December 20, 2024

A Confidence-Financial Inclusion Nexus in the Caucasus and Central Asia?

December 20, 2024

Guinea-Bissau: Seventh Review Under the Extended Credit Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau

December 19, 2024

Benin: Fifth Review under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements, and the Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin

December 19, 2024