Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area
IMF Working Papers, January 22, 2016
Source details
- Canonical URL
- Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area
Other formats
Bibliographic details
- Authors: Huidan Huidan Lin
- Published: January 22, 2016
- Series: IMF Working Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513586175.001
Overview and scope
- Author: Huidan Huidan Lin
- Publication: IMF Working Papers, Working Paper No. 2016/009, Issue 009, Volume 2016
- Publication date: January 22, 2016
- Pages: 25
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513586175.001
- Stock No: WPIEA2016009
- ISBN: 9781513586175
- ISSN: 1018-5941
Key findings
- The paper discusses the risks of stagnation over the medium term in the euro area.
- It examines the consequences of longer-term growth trends that predate the crisis and the progress made in addressing the crisis legacies of high unemployment and debt.
- It illustrates, in a downside scenario, how low potential growth and crisis legacies leave the euro area vulnerable to a negative shock that tips the economy into a prolonged slowdown.
Themes and topics analyzed
- Capital accumulation
- Inflation
- Labor
- National accounts
- Prices
- Private investment
- Production
- Total factor productivity
Keywords and technical focus
- area business investment
- area difference
- Capital accumulation
- crisis
- Deleveraging
- Downside scenario
- euro
- Euro area
- Euro area business investment
- Global
- IMF staff calculation
- Inflation
- interest rate
- investment growth
- labor productivity in the euro area
- Potential growth
- Private investment
- Productivity
- productivity frontier
- productivity gap
- productivity slowdown
- service sector productivity
- Total factor productivity
- WP
Scenario and vulnerability assessment
- Downside scenario: Low potential growth combined with crisis legacies (high unemployment and debt) can make the euro area vulnerable to a negative shock that could tip the economy into a prolonged slowdown.
Publication note
- Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
Source: IMF Working Paper "Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area" by Huidan Huidan Lin (Working Paper No. 2016/009, January 22, 2016).
Content in this bundle
- Risks of Stagnation in the Euro Area; by Huidan Lin; IMF Working Paper WP/16/9; January 2016