Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

By Rahul Anand, Kevin C Cheng, Sidra Rehman, Longmei Zhang

January 13, 2014

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Rahul Anand, Kevin C Cheng, Sidra Rehman, and Longmei Zhang. Potential Growth in Emerging Asia, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2014) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Using three distinct approaches—statistical filtering, production function, and multivariate model— this paper estimates potential growth for China, India, and five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) during 1993–2013. The main findings include: (i) both China and India have recently exhibited a slowdown in potential growth, largely reflecting a decline of total factor productivity (TFP) growth; (ii) by contrast, trend growth for the five ASEAN countries has been rather stable and might even have increased marginally, with the notable exception of Vietnam;(iii) over the longer term, demographic factors will be much more supportive in India and some ASEAN economies than in China, where working-age population should start shrinking, with the overall dependency ratio climbing by the end of this decade. Improving or sustaining potential growth calls for broad structural reforms.

Subject: Aging, Capital accumulation, Inflation, Labor, Labor force participation, National accounts, Population and demographics, Prices, Production, Total factor productivity

Keywords: Aging, ASEAN economy, Asia and Pacific, Capital accumulation, China, Dependency ratio, Economy, Emerging Asia, India, Inflation, Inflation picture, Labor force participation, Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, Potential growth, Production function, Total factor productivity, Trend growth, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2014/002
Stock No:

WPIEA201402
ISBN:

9781484345726
ISSN:

1018-5941

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