Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan

August 1, 2012

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Format: Chicago

Kiichi Tokuoka. Intergenerational Implications of Fiscal Consolidation in Japan, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2012) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

In Japan, intergenerational inequality in lifetime resources is substantial, with a heavier fiscal burden on the young than the old. Moreover, given the need for fiscal consolidation, the inequality is even worse than existing policy would suggest. However, this does not mean that fiscal consolidation would make the young worse off. Lack of fiscal consolidation would eventually increase interest rates, which would reduce output and hit young generations harder. Simulations using an overlapping generations model indicate that, from the perspective of intergenerational fairness, it would be desirable to include both social security spending reforms and revenue measures in a fiscal consolidation package. The simulations also show that delaying fiscal consolidation could be costly and worsen intergenerational resource inequality.

Subject: Aging, Expenditure, Financial institutions, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Labor, Pension spending, Pensions, Population and demographics, Securities

Keywords: Aging, Fiscal consolidation, Global, Income, Intergenerational inequality, Net burden, OLG model, OLG simulation, Overlapping generations model, Pension replacement ratio, Pension spending, Pensions, Present discounted value, Replacement ratio, Securities, VAT, VAT increase, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/197
Stock No:

WPIEA2012197
ISBN:

9781475505474
ISSN:

1018-5941

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