How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands

August 1, 2012

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Nkunde Mwase. How much should I hold? Reserve Adequacy in Emerging Markets and Small Islands, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2012) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper investigates the drivers of reserves in emerging markets (EMs) and small island (SIs) and develops an operational metric for estimating reserves in SIs taking into account their unique characteristics. It uses quantile regression techniques to allow the estimated factors driving reserves holdings to vary along the reserves’ holding distribution and tests for equality among the slope coefficients of the various quantile regressions and the overall models. F-tests comparing the inter-quantile differences could not reject the that the models for the different quantiles of SIs reserve distribution were similar but this was rejected for EMs distribution suggesting that models explaining drivers of reserve holdings should take into account the country’s reserve holdings. Empirical analysis suggests that the metric performs better than existing metrics in reducing crisis probabilities in SIs.

Subject: Current account, Exchange rate arrangements, Exchange rate flexibility, Exports, Financial crises, Foreign exchange, International trade, Monetary base, Money

Keywords: Country holding, Crisis episode, Debt, Deleveraging, Demand holding, Emerging markets, EMP, Europe, Exchange rate arrangements, Exchange rate flexibility, Exports, Global, Holding, Holdings model, Islands, Logit and quantile regression, Models in OLS regression, Monetary base, Precautionary motive, Regression method, Reserve distribution, Reserve holding, Reserve stockpile, Reserves, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

44
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/205
Stock No:

WPIEA2012205
ISBN:

9781475505559
ISSN:

1018-5941

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