Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia

March 1, 2012

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Format: Chicago

Global Food Price Inflation and Policy Responses in Central Asia, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2012) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with structural economic features, the interest rate channel of monetary policy is found to be limited, arguing for a broad policy strategy to control more expansive inflationary pressures. Looking ahead, measures to enhance supply responses, deepen domestic financial markets, develop adequate social safety nets, and increase central bank independence are warranted.

Subject: Agricultural prices, Central bank autonomy, Central bank policy rate, Food prices, Inflation

Keywords: Food, Headline inflation, Price, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2012/086
Stock No:

WPIEA2012086
ISBN:

9781475502497
ISSN:

1018-5941

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