Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

June 1, 2009

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Format: Chicago

Kenji Moriyama, and Abdul Naseer. Forecasting Inflation in Sudan, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2009) accessed November 24, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.

Subject: Agricultural prices, Cyclical indicators, Economic forecasting, Inflation, Monetary base

Keywords: Forecasting inflation, Price, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

25
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2009/132
Stock No:

WPIEA2009132
ISBN:

9781451872798
ISSN:

1018-5941

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