Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?

By Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Ivanna Vladkova Hollar

May 1, 2008

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Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Ivanna Vladkova Hollar. Fiscal Positions in Latin America: Have They Really Improved?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed December 23, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Fiscal performance in Latin America looks much improved this decade compared to the 1980s or 1990s. Is this a "structural" improvement or likely to be transitory? This paper answers this question by estimating the relationship between non-commodity revenue and the economic cycle, and evaluating commodity revenues using alternative medium term commodity price projections. The main result is that structural revenues have indeed improved as a share of GDP, and structural primary balances are currently in surplus in many Latin American countries. However, the magnitude of these improvements is uncertain, in part due to uncertainty about the commodity price outlook.

Subject: Commodities, Commodity prices, Expenditure, Fiscal stance, Personal income

Keywords: Commodity revenue, Output gap, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

30
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/137
Stock No:

WPIEA2008137
ISBN:

9781451869965
ISSN:

1018-5941

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