External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model

February 1, 2008

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Pär Österholm, and Lisandro Abrego. External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from A Bayesian VAR Model, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper investigates the sensitivity of Colombian GDP growth to the surroundingmacroeconomic environment. We estimate a Bayesian VAR model with informative steady-statepriors for the Colombian economy using quarterly data from 1995 to 2007. A variancedecomposition shows that world GDP growth and government spending are the most importantfactors, explaining roughly 17 and 16 percent of the variance in Colombian GDP growthrespectively. The model, which is shown to forecast well out-of-sample, can also be used toanalyse alternative scenarios. Generating both endogenous and conditional forecasts, we showthat the impact on Colombian GDP growth of a substantial downturn in world GDP growthwould be non-negligible but still a mild decline by historical standards.

Subject: Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Foreign direct investment, Vector autoregression, Yield curve

Keywords: GDP, GDP growth, Monetary policy, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

24
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/046
Stock No:

WPIEA2008046
ISBN:

9781451869088
ISSN:

1018-5941

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