Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa

December 1, 2008

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Gonzalo Salinas, and Patrick A. Imam Explaining Episodes of Growth Accelerations, Decelerations, and Collapses in Western Africa, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2008) accessed December 3, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The growth literature has had problems explaining the "sub-Saharan African growth dummy" in cross-country regressions. Instead of taking the usual approach of focusing on long-run growth and assuming that sub-Saharan countries have homogenous parameters in growth regressions, we concentrate our analysis on episodes of growth turnarounds (identifying growth accelerations, decelerations, and collapses) and use only West African countries in our sample. The driving force of growth turnarounds are estimated by analyzing external shocks, political and institutional changes, economic reforms, and indicators particularly relevant to the region. Using probits for a group of 22 Western African economies for the period 1960-2006, we find that growth accelerations are most clearly associated with external shocks, economic liberalization, political stability, and closeness to the coast; decelerations occurred during short-lived regimes and when corruption indices weakened; and collapses are linked to external shocks, falling domestic credit, and proximity to the coast. We then identify policy implications.

Subject: Corruption, Foreign aid, Income, Remittances, Terms of trade

Keywords: Aid increase, Barro-type growth regression, CFA country, Growth acceleration, Growth turnaround, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

44
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2008/287
Stock No:

WPIEA2008287
ISBN:

9781451871456
ISSN:

1018-5941

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