Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT)

By Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, David Rose

March 1, 2009

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Format: Chicago

Douglas Laxton, Alasdair Scott, and David Rose. Developing a Structured Forecasting and Policy Analysis System to Support Inflation-Forecast Targeting (IFT), (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2009) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper presents a basic plan for developing a Forecast and Policy Analysis System designed to support an inflation-forecast targeting regime at a central bank. It includes discussion of the development of data management and reporting processes; the creation of a forecast team and the development of human capital; the implementation of a simple model, plus possible extensions; and the management of regular economic projections. We emphasize that it is better to implement simple models earlier and use them well, rather than wait in an attempt to develop an all-encompassing model.

Subject: Communications in revenue administration, Economic forecasting, Inflation, Labor, National accounts

Keywords: Central bank, Data problem, Exchange rate, IFT regime, Output gap, Staff motivation, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

67
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2009/065
Stock No:

WPIEA2009065
ISBN:

9781451872125
ISSN:

1018-5941

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