Technology and Epidemics

September 1, 1999

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Format: Chicago

Alberto Chong, and Luisa Zanforlin. Technology and Epidemics, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1999) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Evidence from historical and epidemiological literatures show that epidemics tend to spread in the population according to a logistic pattern. We conjecture that the impact of new technologies on output follows a pattern of spread not unlike that of typical epidemics. After reaching a critical mass, rates of growth will accelerate until the marginal benefits of technology are fully utilized. We estimate spline functions using a GMM dynamic panel methodology for 79 countries. We use imports of machinery and equipment as a fraction of gross domestic product as a proxy for the process of technological adoption. Results confirm our hypothesis.

Subject: Econometric analysis, Emerging technologies, Estimation techniques, Financial institutions, Imports, International trade, Stocks, Technology

Keywords: East Asia, Emerging technologies, Epidemic pattern, Epidemics, Estimation techniques, GMM system estimator method, Growth, High-rate-of contagion interval, Imports, Logistic, Machinery and equipment, Rate of growth, Stocks, Technology coefficient, Technology transfer, Upper bound, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

33
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1999/125
Stock No:

WPIEA1251999
ISBN:

9781451854800
ISSN:

1018-5941

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