IMF Working Papers

Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility

By Bennett W Sutton, Luis Catão

September 1, 2002

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Bennett W Sutton, and Luis Catão. Sovereign Defaults: The Role of Volatility, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2002) accessed November 23, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

While the relationship between volatility and credit risk is central to much of the literature on finance and banking, it has been largely neglected in empirical macro studies on sovereign defaults. This paper presents new econometric estimates for a panel of 25 emerging market countries over 1970-2001, breaking down aggregate volatility into its external and domestic policy components. We find that countries with historically higher macroeconomic volatility are more prone to default, and particularly so if part of this volatility is policy-induced. Reducing policy volatility thus appears to be key to improving a country's credit standing.

Subject: Debt default, Exchange restrictions, External debt, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Foreign exchange, International trade, Terms of trade

Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, Credit standing, Debt, Debt default, Emerging market government, Emerging Markets, Exchange restrictions, Fiscal stance, Government balance, Macroeconomic Volatility, Policy volatility variable, Short-term debt, Sovereign Debt, Terms of trade, Terms of trade change, Terms of trade trade cycle, Terms of trade variation, Terms of trade volatility, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    26

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2002/149

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA1492002

  • ISBN:

    9781451856903

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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