Output Decline in Transition: The Case of Kazakhstan

IMF Working Papers, April 1, 1998

Source details

Paper presents a detailed analysis of the output decline in Kazakhstan in the early years of the transition.
Decline documented at the aggregate and sectoral levels.
Reviews the quality of the available data.
Uses a growth accounting framework to quantify the productivity slowdown.
Illustrates how excessive capital accumulation under central planning contributed to the output decline.
Finds strong evidence that disorganization and inherited sectoral misallocation played a significant role.
Notes that credit contractions and reductions in aggregate demand may have had an effect, but clear patterns of causality cannot be established.

Aggregate and sectoral documentation of output decline across the Kazakh economy.
Growth accounting used to quantify the productivity slowdown and link it to past capital accumulation patterns under central planning.
Excessive capital accumulation identified as a contributing factor to output decline.
Disorganization and inherited sectoral misallocation identified as significant contributors.
Credit contractions and reductions in aggregate demand considered possible contributors, with causality remaining unclear.

Review of the quality of available data for Kazakhstan during the transition period.
Application of a growth accounting framework to separate productivity effects from factor accumulation effects.

Subject: Agricultural sector, Commodities, Economic sectors, Industrial sector, Labor, Production, Total factor productivity
Keywords: Agricultural sector, Baltics, clearing operation, economic system, enterprise, Industrial sector, Kazakh economy, Kazakhstan, output decline, price liberalization, Total factor productivity, Transition economies, WP

Output Deline in Transition : The Case of Kazakhstan - WP/98/45
- Output Deline in Transition : The Case of Kazakhstan - WP/98/45 (Markdown version)
- Output Deline in Transition : The Case of Kazakhstan - WP/98/45 (PDF)