Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

IMF Working Papers, December 1, 1994

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Improving the Estimation Methodology of Monthly Data in Direction of Trade Statistics

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Bibliographic details

• Authors: Xiaoning Gong
• Published: December 1, 1994
• Series: IMF Working Papers
• DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451927467.001

Summary and purpose

• The quality of the estimated data in DOTS depends on the availability and accuracy of direction of trade reports and the estimation methodology.
• Because of the low coverage of monthly reporting, the estimating procedure plays a role of increased importance.
• The study identifies two deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology and proposes improvements to increase accuracy.

Identified deficiencies in current DOTS estimation methodology

• The information on total trade in IFS is not efficiently used.
• The assumed uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factor is inappropriate.

Proposed improvements and recommendations

• Allocate IFS total trade, when available, according to the shares of total trade derived from partner data.
• Replace the uniform 10 percent CIF/FOB factors with adjustment factors derived from historical data.

Subject areas and keywords

• Subject: Direction of trade, Exports, Imports, International trade, Trade balance
• Keywords: correlation coefficient, coverage ratio, data, Direction of trade, estimation methodology, Exports, Imports, trade, Trade balance, trade data, trade statistics, trade structure, WP