Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach

February 1, 2003

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Format: Chicago

Abdul d Abiad. Early Warning Systems: A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2003) accessed December 25, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.

Subject: Currency crises, Early warning systems, Econometric analysis, Exchange rates, Financial crises, Foreign exchange, Markov-switching models

Keywords: Crisis date, Crisis duration, Crisis index, Crisis measure, Crisis probability, Crisis vulnerability, Crisis-identification threshold, Currency crises, Currency crisis, Discriminant analysis, Early warning system, Early warning systems, Exchange rate, Exchange rates, Global, Growth rate, Identification method, Markov chain, Markov switching, Markov-switching models, Nominal exchange rate, Regime switching, Short-term debt, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

60
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2003/032
Stock No:

WPIEA0322003
ISBN:

9781451845136
ISSN:

1018-5941

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