Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's: Is there Evidence of Contagion?

By Rodrigo O. Valdes, Leonardo Hernández, Pamela Melado

May 1, 2001

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Rodrigo O. Valdes, Leonardo Hernández, and Pamela Melado. Determinants of Private Capital Flows in the 1970's and 1990's: Is there Evidence of Contagion?, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2001) accessed November 9, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper studies the determinants of private capital flows to developing countries during the last two episodes of large inflows, the late 1970s-early 1980s and the 1990s. The paper also tests for contagion effects in capital flows among recipient countries, and tries to identify specific channels through which such effects can occur. It tests for neighborhood effects, trade-related effects, and for contagion based on the countries having similar macroeconomic indicators. The results show strong evidence for the first two effects during the 1990s, and indicate that the third effect varies depending on the type of capital flow.

Subject: Balance of payments, Capital flows, Capital inflows, Exports, Foreign direct investment, International trade, Private capital flows

Keywords: Capital flow, Capital flows, Capital inflows, Contagion, Debt crisis, Debt flow, East Asia, Exports, Foreign direct investment, GDP growth, Portfolio flow, Private capital flows, Recipient country, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

26
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2001/064
Stock No:

WPIEA0642001
ISBN:

9781451848564
ISSN:

1018-5941

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