Correlations Between Real Interest Rates and Output in a Dynamic International Model: Evidence from G-7 Countries
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Summary:
This paper examines the extent to which a dynamic international general equilibrium model can account for observed movements in real interest rates and interest rate differentials. Using data for Group of Seven, the study finds that measured real interest rates are countercyclical in a single country and that the contemporaneous cross-correlations between international real interest differentials and output growth spreads are negative. Predictions of the baseline model are, however, inconsistent with the data. Extending the benchmark model to include habit persistence in consumption improves the match between theory and data.
Series:
Working Paper No. 1998/179
Subject:
Consumption Econometric analysis Financial services General equilibrium models National accounts Production Production growth Real interest rates Technology
English
Publication Date:
December 1, 1998
ISBN/ISSN:
9781451859003/1018-5941
Stock No:
WPIEA1791998
Pages:
43
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