Working Papers
2023
May 26, 2023
Will Working from Home Stick in Developing Economies?
Description: In developing economies, a shift to working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic varies substantially. An increase in teleworking days per week ranges from 0.7 to 17.6 percentage points across 10 developing countries covered by an online survey to about 500 respondents per country. An estimated income discount associated with telework disappeared temporarily at the onset of the pandemic. A calibrated model indicates that workers’ preferences to telework may largely depend on their educational attainments. Whether telework will sustain in these countries could depend on obstacles to telework, particularly for workers with less education, and a degree of economy-wide externality.
May 26, 2023
Dollar Exchange Rate volatility and Productivity Growth in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Firm Level Data
Description: This paper examines the impact of Dollar exchange rate volatility on firm productivity in Emerging Markets economies (EMs). Using firm level data covering 16 EMs over the period 1998 -2019, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility reduces firm productivity growth. Exploring channels, its finds that the results are driven by countries with low level of financial development, high dollar invoicing, high bilateral trade with the US, high collective bargaining coverage and open capital account. Exploring the role of policy, it finds that Foreign Exchange Interventions (FXI) dampen this impact on firm productivty. Further, exploiting firm level data, the paper shows that dollar exchange rate volatility operates also through the financial friction channel, reducing contemporaneous investments, especially at firms with low liquidity buffers and weak balance sheet (high leverage). The role of financial frictions is confirmed through the finding that younger firms, more likely to face financial constraints, are also found to be more vulnerable to dollar exchange rate volatility. In addition, we also find evidence of a large and persistent effect on firms with highly irreversible investment, lending support for the real option channel of uncertainty on the dollar exchange rate. These findings are robust to a battery of tests, including controlling for uncertainty, financial crises and using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting US monetary policy shocks as an exogenous source of variation in dollar exchange rate volatility.
May 26, 2023
The Anatomy of the Financial Inclusion Gap in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Description: This paper analyses how financial inclusion in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) compares to peers in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Using individual-level survey data, it shows that the probability of being financially included, as proxied by account ownership in financial institutions, is substantially lower across gender, income groups, and education levels in all CCA countries relative to CEE comparators. Key determinants of this financial inclusion gap are lower financial and human development indices, weak rule of law, and physical access to bank branches or ATMs. This suggests that targeted policies aimed at boosting financial and human development, strengthening the rule of law, and supporting fintech solutions can broaden financial inclusion in the CCA.
May 19, 2023
Spillovers to Emerging Markets from US Economic News and Monetary Policy
Description: When the U.S. economy sneezes, do emerging markets catch a cold? We show that economic news, and not just monetary policy, in the United States affects financial conditions in emerging markets. News about U.S. employment has the strongest effects, followed by news about economic activity and about vaccines during the COVID-19 pandemic. News about inflation has instead limited effects on average. A key channel of international transmission of U.S. economic news appears to be the risk perceptions or risk aversion of international investors. We also show that some of the transmission of U.S. economic news occurs independently of the U.S. monetary policy reaction. Finally, we expand on evidence that financial conditions in the U.S. and emerging markets respond differently to U.S. monetary policy surprises, depending on the reaction of US stock prices.
May 19, 2023
Too Low for Too Long: Could Extended Periods of Ultra Easy Monetary Policy Have Harmful Effects?
Description: Extended periods of ultra-easy monetary policy in advanced economies have rekindled debates about the zombification of weak companies and its impact on resource allocation, economic growth, inflation, and financial stability. Using both firm-level and macroeconomic data, we find that recessions are a critical factor in the rapid increase in the number of zombie firms. Expansionary monetary policy can help reduce zombification when interest rates are at the zero lower bound (ZBL), but a too-accommodative monetary policy for extended periods is associated with a higher probability of zombification. Small and medium enterprises are more likely to become zombie firms. This raises concerns about the sustainability of too-easy monetary policy implementation, especially in countries where growth is lackluster. Our findings imply a tradeoff between conducting a countercyclical monetary policy, which also helps contain the increase in the number of zombie firms in cyclical downturns, and using an expansionary monetary policy for long periods, which may lead to a combination of low interest rates, low growth, and high financial vulnerability. Such a tradeoff is not a concern currently when most countries are tightening their monetary policy stance, but policymakers should be mindful of it during future recessions.
May 16, 2023
Nigeria’s eNaira, One Year After
Description: This paper reflects on the first year of the eNaira—the first CBDC in Africa. Despite the laudable undisrupted operation for the first full year, the CBDC project has not yet moved beyond the initial wave of limited adoption. Network effects suggest the initial low adoption spell will require a coordinated policy drive to break it. The eNaira’s potential in financial inclusion requires a strategy to set the right relationship with mobile money, given the former’s potential to either complement or substitute the latter. Cost savings from integrating CBDC—as a bridge vehicle—in the remittance process may also be substantial.
May 12, 2023
The Extent and Composition of Automatic Stabilization in EU Countries
Description: This paper analyses the magnitude of automatic income and demand stabilization in EU Member States between 2011 to 2019. Our analysis finds that automatic income stabilization in 2019 averaged 41.3 percent at the EU level, with considerable variation among Member States. While the extent of stabilization is similar across income groups within countries, the source of stabilization differs, with income taxation (transfers) being more important for high-income (low-income) households. Income stabilization proved stable over time, with a few exceptions driven by major reforms. EU-level demand stabilization averaged 84.7 percent, increasing with household income and reflecting the greater ability of richer households to smooth consumption.
May 12, 2023
Benchmarking Infrastructure Using Public Investment Efficiency Frontiers
Description: With limited financing options, increasing investment efficiency will be a critical avenue to building infrastructure for many countries, particularly in the context of post-pandemic recovery and rising debt emanating from higher energy costs and other pressures. Estimating investment efficiency, however, presents many methodological pitfalls. Using various methods—–stochastic frontier analysis, data envelopment analysis (DEA), and bootstrapped DEA—this paper estimates efficiency scores for a wide range of countries employing metrics of infrastructure quantity and utilization. We find that efficiency scores are relatively robust across methodologies and data used. A considerable efficiency gap exists: Removing all inefficiencies could increase infrastructure output by 55 percent overall, when averaging across 12 estimation approaches—in particular, by 45 percent for advanced economies, 54 percent for emerging countries, and 65 percent for low income countries. Infrastructure output would increase by a still-sizeable 30 percent if instead of eliminating all efficiency, countries achieved the efficiency level of their income group’s 90th percentile.
May 12, 2023
Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper?
Description: This paper analyzes whether structural changes in the aftermath of the pandemic have steepened the Phillips curves in advanced economies, reversing the flattening observed in recent decades and reducing the sacrifice ratio associated with disinflation. Particularly, analysis of granular price quote data from the UK indicates that increased digitalization may have raised price flexibility, while de-globalization may have made inflation more responsive to domestic economic conditions again. Using sectoral data from 24 advanced economies in Europe, higher digitalization and lower trade intensity are shown to be associated with steeper Phillips curves. Post-pandemic Phillips curve estimates indicate some steepening in the UK, Spain, Italy and the euro area as a whole, but at magnitudes that are too small to explain the entire surge in inflation in 2021–22, suggesting an important role for outward shifts in the Phillips curve.
May 12, 2023
Retaliation through Temporary Trade Barriers
Description: Are Temporary Trade Barriers (TTBs) introduced for strategic reasons? To answer this question, we construct a novel sectoral measure of retaliation using daily bilateral data on TTB responses in 1220 subsectors across a panel of 25 advanced and emerging market economies over 1989-2019. Stylized facts and econometric analysis suggest that within-year responses are more important in terms of intensity and frequency than commonly understood from the existing literature, which has tended to ignore them. We find that retaliation often consists of responses across many sectors and that same-sector retaliation is far from being the norm. In addition, we find that larger countries tend to retaliate more, and that retaliation is larger during periods of higher unemployment and when the trading partner targeted a domestic comparative advantage sector.